For the global economy, a sinister slog tempered by new hopes

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Calculating the prospects for a strong economic recovery involves grappling with questions of a human nature. Depression imbued a generation with a tendency to economize and an aversion to risk. If the frugality continues this time around, it would have profound and lasting economic consequences: consumer spending typically accounts for two-thirds of economic activity in countries like the United States and Great Britain.

“If you’re a business, you might be a little more reluctant to hire staff,” said Ben May, global economist at Oxford Economics in London. “You could be content with overtime for a while. Households could behave more cautiously. If this is the case, you run the risk of suffering economic scars later. “

Long-term damage in addition to recent economic devastation would add to the inequality that has been a central feature of recent decades, as people with better education, advanced skills, and access to the stock and real estate markets have reaped the benefits. expansion gains, while others struggled.

The pandemic has made the world even better. He has focused his deadly force on blue collar workers, for whom human interaction is a necessity, hitting people who work in warehouses, slaughterhouses and frontline medical facilities. Professionals able to work from home maintained their security as well as their income.

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