Elections 2020 live: Trump vs Biden early poll puts US on track for record turnout


Adam Samson, Editor-in-Chief of Markets News
If there’s one thing investors seem to be sure about, it’s that the next few hours and days will be a long task.
The unprecedented surge in mail-order voting in the United States has heightened the sense of uncertainty as one of the most contested elections in American history draws near.
The Vix Index, one of the most closely watched measures of expected stock market volatility, is trading at 37, about double its long-term average. Currency traders have stepped up their hedging activities, especially on the Chinese renminbi.
Still, markets appear bullish as polling stations begin to open on the U.S. east coast. Futures tracked by the S&P 500 index are up 1.3%, echoing large gains in Europe and Asia. US government debt, especially with long maturities in the future, is under pressure, signaling a sense of calm as Election Day begins.
Investors say the markets have largely integrated Democrat Joe Biden’s victory over current Donald Trump. The specter of a blue wave, where Democrats are also taking control of Congress, has pushed up the price of stocks that would benefit Mr Biden’s plans for a massive infrastructure spending program. It has also put pressure on the price of US Treasuries, as investors expect it will fuel stronger growth and inflation going forward and trigger a deluge of US government debt issuance to fund. fiscal stimulus.
But investment strategists are quick to note that Mr Biden is in favor of raising corporate taxes. Mr. Trump’s tax cuts were one of his main accomplishments in his first term and were a big boon to corporate profits in America. In turn, state-owned companies used some of their increased profits to buy back stocks, which helped propel Wall Street stocks to record highs.
All of these competing dynamics mean it could get choppy. The FT Markets team will be writing dispatches on this blog and on the homepage as assets respond – so stay tuned.

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