Another 38,619 new cases were recorded on Monday, when the numbers are still artificially suppressed due to the drop in weekend testing. As of Saturday, due to an accumulation of countless cases from the previous days, almost 90,000 cases were reported. Friday marked a new daily record of nearly 60,000 cases, which per capita would equate to nearly 300,000 daily cases in the United States. The seven-day moving average of cases in France is now nearly 42,000. The average death rate over the past seven days in hospital is 364.
The spread of the pandemic is a revelation of the criminal policies pursued by the ruling class in France and across Europe. In late spring, governments forced workers back to work in order to reopen the economy and increase corporate profits. Across Europe there was a race to see who could most quickly dismantle all precautions. The second wave of curfews and partial closures were both deliberately delayed and insufficient to contain the upsurge.
From August, there was a very clear resurgence of the pandemic, at varying rates depending on the country.
Spain has shown the first clear signs of the second wave, but the central government is still refusing to implement the lockdown measures requested by local regions. In Germany, the previous peak in April will be exceeded in two to three weeks. Belgium is once again the hardest-hit European country and its hospital system is on the verge of collapse. Italy has introduced regional curfews and partial lockdowns. In Switzerland, where very few precautionary measures are in place, several cantons are reaching their maximum capacity for emergency care beds.
In the UK, Johnson admitted to MPs that the deaths this winter could be twice or even more than the first wave.
The epidemic control measures have been calibrated to minimize any impact on economic activity and business profits. Serious measures from late August to early September, before the reopening of the school and university system, could still have been effective. The French government has made the conscious decision to allow the pandemic to grow out of control.
The Institut Pasteur has developed scenarios based on the lockout proposals submitted by the government. According to The world, the scientists estimate that the reproduction rate of the virus (the value R0) could fall to 0.9 – compared to 0.7 during the first containment – but they also envisage a “pessimistic scenario”, with an R0, of 1.2 where the number of cases would hold up to increase exponentially.
Even the “optimistic scenario” shows the government is not serious about containing the outbreak and has plans to let it spread to an extraordinarily high level throughout the winter. The impact on the already strained health system will be devastating.
Reflecting the disorganized nature of pandemic surveillance and the increase in cases, the French national health system has encountered difficulties in reporting daily data on the evolution of cases over the past two weeks, which has led to uncertainties about the real evolution of the epidemic since the beginning. lock.
The available data indicates that the R0 peaked at 1.42 when the lockdown was imposed, which equates to a doubling of new cases every 2 weeks. On Friday it would have fallen to 1.31.
The rate of contamination in social services, which includes nursing homes for the elderly, has increased considerably. As of mid-October, there were an average of 36 deaths per day in these institutes and 27 in hospitals.
During the week of October 21-28, the most recent week for which data is available, there was a dramatic increase in the ratio of average daily deaths in institutes to hospitals, with 74 deaths in institutes and 36 in hospitals. As in the first wave, this may indicate the first signs of refusal to accept the elderly in the emergency room, linked to the overflow of hospital and intensive care services. This trend is likely to become more pronounced and contribute to a sharp increase in mortality among the elderly.
The reopening of the university and school system contributed in a major way to the epidemic explosion from September. The Ministry of Education has constantly tried to cover up the severity of the epidemic.
Faced with overcrowded conditions in schools and the deliberate endangerment of students and teachers, spontaneous strikes and demonstrations by high school students erupted after the announcement of the partial lockdown, which provided for schools to remain open. They developed outside of union control, and the government responded with a police crackdown on protesting high school students.
Finally, in apparent fear of a widespread social explosion spreading from the school system, Health Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer suddenly announced that high schools would be able to alternate online and in-person classes, having previously refused such measures. Details were not spelled out and nothing was prepared or tested.
There is no provision for middle or primary schools, although the health issues are the same as in high school. The government is clearly committed to preventing parental leave and compensation claims.
The limited measures taken in France and Europe show that governments consider hundreds of daily coronavirus deaths to be the new normal.