The Asian powerhouse is expected to have a GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power, equal to $ 25,307 in 2025. This will take it beyond Argentina, one of the richest countries in the world there. a century and now plunged into debt and currency crises.
Jim O’Neill, former head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs Inc., which coined the acronym BRIC for Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2001, says the bloc “could collectively become more bigger than the G-7 countries ”in the 2030s, in reference to the Group of Seven richest nations. “It’s almost exclusively because of China and, to a lesser extent, India,” he says.
There are many other noteworthy findings in the data, which show big jumps, especially among countries in Eastern Europe and Asia.
Turkmenistan is expected to be the only country to climb higher in the rankings than China, with 58 places. There are also big wins for Armenia, Georgia, Vietnam and Bangladesh.
Overall, developing countries in Asia will see their GDP per capita increase six-fold over the period. In contrast, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and Central Asia are not even expected to double their income.
Among the G-7 economies, the average GDP per capita rose from $ 31,471 to $ 64,582 expected in 2025. Italy is the only member that is expected to drop sharply in the rankings, from 35th to 21st place .
The United States has generally maintained its position in the world. It ranked 11th in 2000, with a GDP per capita of $ 36,318, and is expected to drop to 9th. But its neighbors have fared less well. Canada is expected to drop six places to 24th place and Mexico is one of the biggest losers of the period, dropping 26 places to 77th place by 2025.
In general, the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean have lagged behind over the past quarter century. They are also among the hardest hit by Covid-19 this year, with GDP per capita expected to decline in all economies in the region except Guyana. In Venezuela, things got so bad that the IMF did not even attempt to make a forecast – but by 2019, the country’s residents had already seen GDP per capita drop 36% from 2000.
Haiti has not recovered from the devastating earthquake of 10 years ago, despite billions of dollars in aid. It is expected to rank 183rd out of 191 countries measured in 2025 – up from 159th in 2000, and the lowest ranked country in the Western Hemisphere.
The countries of the Persian Gulf, among the richest in the world at the turn of the century, have lost ground with the fall in the price of oil. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia all rise to the top 20 in the world as living standards stagnate or decline.
Others in the region have been devastated by war and political turmoil. Libya, Syria and Yemen saw steep declines. In Lebanon, the situation is so dire that the IMF expects a 25% contraction in GDP this year alone. The woes of the Middle East are reflected in the fact that the five countries that IMF projections will have lower per capita incomes in 2025 than at the turn of the century are in the region.
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind the global economy, although there are some bright spots. While only Seychelles and Gabon had a GDP per capita above $ 10,000 in 2000, by 2025 six more economies are expected to reach or exceed that level.
The increase in living standards is most spectacular in Asia.
In China, GDP per capita nearly doubled from 2000 to 2006, did so again before 2013, and is expected to double again by 2024 – an annualized growth rate of 9.1% over a 25-year period.
The Asian city-states of Macao and Singapore are expected to rank among the world’s top three riches, joining Luxembourg. Singapore’s per capita GDP, which exceeded that of the United States in 2006, is expected to reach $ 115,445 by 2025 by the IMF.
In the year 2020 of the coronavirus, the IMF expects only four of the world’s 50 largest economies to achieve an increase in per capita GDP, with Vietnam, Taiwan and Egypt joining China.
Most of the others bounce back pretty quickly. The five countries with the highest number of Covid-19-related deaths – the United States, Brazil, India, Mexico and the United Kingdom – are all expected to post strong rebounds. However, during the pandemic, they will have lost more ground to the benefit of China.
“Chinese companies have not only reported the greatest success to date in recovering production lost by Covid-19, but also plan to achieve the fastest full recovery,” said Chris Williamson, economist at IHS Markit. “American companies come second.”