He told BBC Radio 4’s Today program: ‘What we have at the moment is a situation where most parts of the country are facing an exponential increase in cases, and what a circuit breaker or a precautionary cutoff would do is to lower R that short two week period.
“It would actually take us more time to put in place other controls.
“One of the ways to think about this is that it kind of takes us back in time when the cases are lower and therefore gives us the opportunity to do something else, it reduces the number of cases and leads to a drop. Similar hospitalizations and also deaths over a short period. ”
Asked how many lives that could be saved by a circuit breaker, he said: “We looked at a range of different scenarios, from a relatively low growth rate going forward where we could sort of cut back. the deaths of a third party. by the new year to some extreme scenarios, which I think were the ones that were quoted in the newspapers, which really were if we don’t do anything between now and the new year. ”
Telling him that a circuit breaker ‘just postpones’ deaths, Prof Keeling said he was’ completely’ okay with that, but added: ‘We stress that this is only a short term measure – it saves us time to put other measures in place. , but for now we need this time. “