An article written by members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) … shows that a full two-week lockdown, with stay-at-home orders and school closures, from October 24 could reduce the number of deaths for the rest of the year. approximately 19,900 to 12,100. Hospital admissions could be reduced from 132,400 to 66,500.A limited lockdown, with schools and shops open but reception areas closed, could reduce the number of deaths to 15,600 …
The article by Graham Medley, president of Sage’s SPI-M modeling group, and SPI-M members Matt Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael Tildesley, and Edward Hill, models the effect of different restrictions at different times.
They say that “the optimal time for a break is always now; there are no good epidemiological reasons for delaying the break ”, although they add that it could also apply during the Christmas holidays or the spring semester.
Johnson is in the Commons later for PMQs, so we’ll get his reaction then.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9h30: Oliver Dowden, Culture Secretary, testifies before the Commons Culture Committee.
10h30: The Northern Ireland assembly is meeting to hear details of new partial foreclosure plans for the region.
10h35: Grant Shapps, Transportation Secretary, addresses a virtual convention of the travel organization Abta.
11am: The OECD publishes its economic study of the United Kingdom.
11:15 am: Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, testifies before a committee of lords on the home market bill.
12h: Boris Johnson faces Sir Keir Starmer at PMQ.
12h15: The Scottish government is to hold its regular coronavirus briefing.
Around 12:45 p.m .: MPs start two debates on Labor motions relating to Covid economic support and contact tracing.
13h30: Downing Street must hold its lobby briefing.
At some point today, ministers are also meeting to discuss the possibility of Greater Manchester moving to tighter Level 3 restrictions – the Very High Alert Level.
And Johnson is also due to meet with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, ahead of the EU summit which begins tomorrow.
Politics Live has become the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given how the Covid crisis overshadows everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we’ll also be covering non-Covid political stories.
Here is our live blog on the global coronavirus.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a straightforward question, include “Andrew” somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I try to answer the questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and answer above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do it for everyone.
If you want to get my attention quickly, it’s probably best to use Twitter. I’m on it @AndrewSparrow.