But there could still be surprises ahead of election day on November 3, and fears persist that if Biden wins, Trump could plunge the world’s oldest constitutional democracy into crisis by challenging the result in court. by disseminating conspiracy theories online and mobilizing activists. in the streets.
Biden leads by 17 percentage points in an Opinium Research / Guardian poll, 16 points in a CNN poll and 11 points in an NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll. The last incumbent president to suffer such deficits was the last incumbent president to lose: George HW Bush, defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992.
Biden’s consistent advantage includes the crucial decisive states that will decide on the all-important electoral college and raises the prospect that Democrats can win back the White House and Senate and expand their majority in the House of Representatives.
“Trump is going to get killed,” said Joe Walsh, a former congressman who unsuccessfully challenged the president in this year’s Republican primaries. “I think we’ll know on election night that he lost. Republicans will lose the Senate. It will probably be the highest turnout in a hundred years in this country and it will be a bloodbath for Republicans.
Trump appears to have hemorrhagic support between two crucial electoral blocs. One of them is the elderly, who were instrumental in her victory over Hillary Clinton in states like Florida in 2016. Walsh added, “One of the great stories we will all analyze after this election will be that Trump has lost older voters in this country. .
“He beat Hillary when it comes to older voters, but Biden will win them a lot because they think Trump is a fucking madman who screwed up this pandemic and a bunch of older Americans are dead.
The other group that is abandoning Trump is made up of suburban women, apparently rejecting his vulgar slurs and displays of machismo regarding the virus. With a hint of desperation this week at a rally in Johnstown, Pa., The president pleaded, “Suburban women, are you going to please me? Please please. I saved your damn neighborhood, okay?
Trump had appeared confident of his re-election earlier this year based on his economic record, but Covid-19, and his continued downplay of it, has taken its toll. The president himself was hospitalized with the virus earlier this month, but has since recovered and is back on the electoral track.
But his rallies no longer soak up the media coverage as before, with some commentators suggesting the carnival barking act, so new to 2016, has become routine and even boring. His need to hold them in states like Iowa and Georgia, traditionally safe Republican territory, suggests he is on the defensive. Speaking in North Carolina on Thursday, he pointed to the sky and joked, “We need the boss’s help.”
Biden, a former senator who served as Barack Obama’s vice president from 2009 to 2017, came from behind to win the Democratic primaries nomination and, amid America’s intertwined health, economic and racial crises, maintained a lead. remarkably consistent on Trump. Its low-key campaign with much smaller events seems to be working.
Walsh commented, “Joe Biden has been ignoring Twitter which is brilliant. His people kept their heads down, campaigned responsibly on this pandemic, and let Donald Trump spring up every day. Biden has slowly developed trust with the vast majority of the American people and it will bring him a big victory.
Trump, 74, tried to portray Biden, 77, as a mental decline and a puppet of the radical left. This week he tweeted a doctored image of Biden in a wheelchair at a nursing home and said, “Put simply, it’s a choice between a socialist nightmare and the American dream.”
But the “Sleepy Joe” brand appears to have been a bad sequel to “Crooked Hillary” and Biden has been harder to demonize than the unpopular Clinton. Trump has also struggled to shift the topic of the pandemic to “culture wars” or law and order, but the virus has proven to be a relentless foe.
His campaign has been just as chaotic as it was in 2016. His manager, Brad Parscale, was demoted and then resigned after being hospitalized following reports he threatened to harm himself in his Florida home. The campaign was forced to take state advertising off the battlefield after running out of money, even as Biden broke fundraising records.
And Trump, who took populist notes on immigration and trade in 2016, has consistently deviated from the script this year. In October alone, he pushed a conspiracy theory questioning the death of Osama bin Laden, criticized America’s leading infectious disease expert, described Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris as a “monster,” and, during a town hall events duel with Biden on Thursday night failed to disavow QAnon’s conspiracy theory.
Monika McDermott, professor of political science at Fordham University in New York, said: “It has been terrible, especially lately, because Trump himself just has no discipline and no control. He alienates people from the left and the right and doesn’t seem to be actively trying to win. It actually almost seems like he’s self-sabotaging or just in denial in some way or another and that’s not where a winning candidate or strategy comes from.
Biden, she added, benefited from part of the pandemic by conducting interviews and fundraising from his basement at his home in Wilmington, Delaware. “The fact that Democrats kept him in the basement for so long was actually to his advantage. Since he came out he’s been relatively blunt, strong and stable and I think that’s what people are looking for right now, as opposed to the craziness of what’s going on with Trump these days.
More than 18 million people have voted so far, according to data compiled by the US Elections Project. Democrats led Republicans in postal votes in Florida by more than 400,000 people on Wednesday morning. But there have been few signs of complacency on the Democratic side, with still rough memories of 2016, when many state polls were irrelevant.
Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden campaign manager, Twitter followers warned: “Early voting is already underway in many states. Millions of voters have already voted. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is much closer than people on this website think. Like much closer.
With time running out, Trump could become even more reckless in his efforts to change the course of the race. During a virtual fundraiser Thursday, Biden warned his supporters that the president “was going to throw everything at me except the kitchen sink” and deliver “a crushing torrent of lies.”
Biden’s son Hunter has come under re-examination after a New York Post report describing an email Hunter allegedly received from a Ukrainian businessman discussing a meeting with his father. Biden’s campaign has denied the meeting ever took place and experts have raised questions about the veracity of the emails.
Election monitoring officers remain on alert for signs of voter suppression or intimidation. Trump has spent months making unsubstantiated statements to discredit postal voting, which research suggests Democrats are more likely to use than Republicans. The president has also refused to engage in a peaceful transfer of power, fueling concerns over weeks of legal wrangling and potentially explosive street protests. Asked about this at the town hall on Thursday evening, he was still somewhat ambiguous. “They talk about ‘Will you accept a peaceful transfer?’ And the answer is yes, I will – but I want it to be an honest election, just like everyone else.
Activist groups are girding themselves to protect the integrity of the count. Sarah Dohl, co-founder and interim campaign manager of Indivisible, said: “With every tweet and refusal to commit to accepting legitimate election results, Trump is trying to stoke chaos and fear. That’s all she has left in her playbook. But we’re ready.
“If Trump declares victory before all the votes are counted or prevents the legitimate counting of votes, we will mobilize in every corner of this country to ensure that voters have the final say in November.”
Democrats have argued that the best antidote is to win by such a massive margin that the result is indisputable. Such an outcome, once considered highly unlikely, is now at least possible as Trump’s candidacy threatens to implode.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said, “Trump waged the worst presidential campaign in modern American history. Biden has a lead that is beyond the margin of error and I consider those numbers to be real.
“There is nothing for Trump that will shake up the election. He needs a hydrogen bomb to explode. The election seems almost frozen. It’s remarkable when you look at the survey averages, you go state by state, it’s pretty consistent and there aren’t many ups and downs. So for me, this election is practically over.