Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News’ Bret Baier Thursday night that his “profession is over” if President Trump wins re-election on Nov. 3, and once again proves the national polls to be false.
“I hate to admit it, because it’s my industry – at least partially – but the public will have no faith. No trust. Right now, the biggest problem is the confidence deficit, “Luntz said in response to Baier asking how pollsters would fare if they were wrong in predicting the 2020 presidential election.” Pollsters don’t didn’t do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5 or 6 point lead, my profession is over. “
National polls largely show Biden has a lead over Trump two weeks away from the presidential election.
Real Clear Politics, which aggregates several national polls and takes the average, shows Biden up 7.9 points, although in battlefield states the former vice president is only up 3.8 points – well within the margin of error, which usually hovers around four points.
Hillary Clinton is expected to win in 2016, with polls still similar to Biden’s.
FiveThirtyEight’s election plan gave Clinton an 86 percent chance of winning at this point in the last presidential race. Biden is currently expected to win with an 88% chance.
Some polls seem to show a tighter race in their polls this time around. But Luntz, a GOP pollster, still believes Biden will win the presidency after claiming Trump won the second and final presidential debate on Thursday.
“You have to give Trump a small victory because he will bring it [undecided] the voters are at home, and that will end the race a bit, ”Luntz told CNBC’s“ Squawk Box ”on Friday. “But in the end, I think Joe Biden won the war. ”
Clinton also faced obstacles that Biden doesn’t necessarily struggle with.
Clinton was running during the post-Obama administration era, and reports after the 2016 upheaval showed voters were intrigued by Trump’s unusual, non-political behavior and were ready for a change in Washington.
The other major factor that will come into play in the 2020 election is the number of voters who were disappointed with the 2016 presidential race and chose not to vote at all.
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Although more people are expected to vote early in the 2020 presidential election, as opposed to waiting on election day to vote in person, over 38% of the number of votes cast in 2016 has already been recorded with two weeks remaining before the general election. , according to the US Election Project.
So far, Democrats have voted at a rate nearly double that of Republicans, although as the first polls open, the ratio will likely start to level out.