Places in Wales where coronavirus is growing fastest

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New figures released today show the number of coronavirus cases rising in all parts of Wales.We scanned data from Public Health Wales to see the places in Wales where the disease is spreading the fastest. We compared the figures published on Tuesday October 7 (dated October 4) with 14 days before (Monday September 21).

These figures are moving seven-day totals for new cases adjusted for population (per 100,000 population). It’s important to remember that while these numbers are a useful guide, they are only part of the story. If testing increases massively in one location, there will likely be an increase in confirmed cases. It’s also important to remember that these numbers are low and do not suggest that the coronavirus is endemic in these areas.

However, these figures are still a critical factor in the decision-making of the Welsh government and the public health of Wales.

Speaking recently to the Senedd health committee, Fliss Bennee, co-chair of the technical advisory unit, described the levels an area would need to reach before being ordered to be closed. They were:

  • An area with 15-20 cases per 100,000 would be put on the “watch list”.
  • Amber Level – Between 25 and 50 cases per 100,000 would mean considering and weighing restrictions.
  • Red level – More than 50 cases per 100,000 would mean immediate implementation of restrictions.

However, recently the Welsh government put local authorities such as Cardiff on lockdown before cases hit that figure of 50 as it is clear which direction the number of infections is going.

These are the current areas with increasing rates of Covid-19

Bridgend

Although there are six counties with more cases per 100,000, there has been a sharp increase in the rate in Bridgend. Just two weeks ago there were six cases per 100,000 in the region, in two weeks that number has risen from nearly 2,000% to 124.

Ceredigion

The number of cases in the last 14 days per 100,000 population in Ceredigion has increased by 1,421%.

This is the second largest increase in Wales. But it’s really important to point out that the county still has relatively low virus rates compared to other areas. As the county is less densely populated, the gross number of cases is very low. However, it still fell from 2.8 to 42.6 per 100,000 in two weeks.

Wrexham

Wrexham is among the latest local lockdown announcements. The border county experienced an outbreak centered around Wrexham Maelor Hospital in July, but then managed to avoid a local lockdown.

He has seen a rapid increase in cases over the past fortnight from 8.8 to 125.5 cases per 100,000.

This table shows the growth rates in each local authority – and the good news from Caerphilly is that it seems possible to turn the tide as the virus is falling there faster than any other part of Wales.

The place in Wales with the most cases

Merthyr County has more population-based cases than any other part of Wales, followed closely by RCT.

Merthyr’s graph shows how cases increased with a peak in the summer centered around a meat processing plant.

You can follow daily updates on how the coronavirus is affecting Wales here.

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