London Covid: Latest R coronavirus issue and capital’s growth rate as level 2 kicks in


The number of coronavirus R in London has fallen for the second week in a row, according to the latest figures.The R number in the capital is currently between 1.1-1.4, up from the 1.2-1.4 reported last week.

The week before, the R-number was between 1.2 and 1.6, which means the number has steadily declined over the past three weeks.

The latest data was released Friday, October 16, by the government’s Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

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The R number represents the number of people to whom an infected person transmits the virus, and anything greater than 1 means the epidemic is growing.

If the value is less than 1, the spread of the virus will eventually decrease because there are not enough new infected people to support the outbreak.

An R number between 1.1 and 1.4 means that on average 10 infected people will infect between 11 and 14 other people.

The R number for England this week is between 1.3 and 1.5, which means London is below the national average.

The news comes just hours before London was placed in the government tier 2 category for coronavirus restrictions.

The new, more stringent measures will take effect at 12:01 p.m. on Saturday, October 17 and will mean households will not be allowed to mingle indoors, although they will still be allowed to meet in groups of six at home. outside.

Under the new Tier 2 restrictions, Londoners are being told not to use public transport unless they are making an essential journey.

Pubs and restaurants will remain open, as will shops and gyms – but different households will not be allowed to meet inside the pubs.

The “rule of six,” which prohibits gatherings of more than six people, and the 10 pm curfew for the hospitality industry, remain in effect.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced the tighter restrictions on Thursday, October 15.

London has been placed in government tier 2 category for coronavirus restrictions

Despite the decline in the R-number in London, data from Public Health England shows the number of coronavirus cases in the capital is increasing at an alarming rate.

Figures show that 8,700 people in the capital have tested positive for Covid-19 in the seven days leading up to Sunday, October 11. During this period, more people tested positive in Ealing than in any other borough, with 495 confirmed to be carrying the virus.

Barnet (443), Redbridge (377) and Hackney and City of London (373) have also seen hundreds of people testing positive.

For comparison, data shows 6,272 Londoners tested positive for the virus in the seven days to October 4. And the week before, there were 3,182 positive tests.

Surprisingly, there were only 2,080 positive tests in the seven days leading up to September 20. This means that the number of people testing positive in the capital has quadrupled in the past three weeks.

What is the R number and the growth rate for each region?

Government figures are released every Friday.

The values, shown below, are in range form. The most likely true values ​​are somewhere around the middle of that range, according to the government. The growth rate is shown in parentheses.

United Kingdom: 1.3 – 1.5 (+4 to +7)

England: 1.2 – 1.4 (+4 to +7)

East of England: 1.3 – 1.5 (+4 to +8)

London: 1.1 – 1.4 (+2 to +5)

Midlands: 1,2 – 1,5 (+4 à +7)

North East and Yorkshire: 1.3 – 1.4 (+4 to +7)

Northwest: 1.3 – 1.5 (+5 to +7)

South-East: 1.3 – 1.5 (+5 to +8)

Southwest: 1.3 – 1.6 (+6 to +10)

A woman wearing a protective mask walks on London Bridge in central London

What does the growth rate mean?

Growth rate is an estimate of the percentage change in the number of infections each day. It is important to say that London is the lowest in the country.

If the growth rate is greater than zero (+ positive), the epidemic will develop. If the growth rate is less than zero (- negative), the epidemic recedes.

The size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change. A growth rate of +5 percent indicates that the epidemic is growing faster than a growth rate of +1 percent. Likewise, a growth rate of -4% indicates that the epidemic is shrinking faster than a growth rate of -1%.

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