Content of the article continued
While these types of high ambitions get attention, we wonder how achievable they really are. California, for example, experienced power outages this summer due to spikes in air conditioner use – how exactly is it going to meet the incredible demand for converting to electric vehicles in just 15 years?
Likewise, a report by Wood Mackenzie cited on the electrek website predicts that electric truck sales in the United States are expected to increase to over 54,000 by 2025 – quite the forecast given that there was no than 2,000 electric trucks on American roads at the end of 2019. Some industry observers, including Microsoft founder Bill Gates, have been more skeptical and have suggested that semi-trucks and planes may be impossible to convert. efficiently in electrical energy.
We believe that many also grossly overestimate the conversion of gasoline to electricity and its impact on the demand for oil. When it comes to its disruptive ability, EVs lack key components needed for scale-up, including affordability for the average consumer and the general lack of convenience and reliability. That could change with new battery technology for example, but it’s a gamble on something that just hasn’t happened yet.