Canadians must cut contacts by 25% to curb second wave COVID-19: modeling

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OTTAWA – Current projections indicate that Canadians must reduce their current contact rate by 25% in order to bring the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic under control in this country. Despite the reinstatement of additional restrictions in areas where the spread of the virus has intensified in recent months, the current epidemic curve does not appear to be flattening, according to new national modeling released on Friday.

After surpassing the previous string of cases and projected maximum deaths, cases continue to rise and Canada is on track to see thousands of new cases and hundreds of new deaths by November 8.

If we maintain our current rate of contacts, the epidemic is expected to reappear, and a 25% decrease would mean the spread would be under control “in most places,” according to the chief public health official’s briefing , Dr. Theresa Tam.

Tam calls on people to avoid gatherings with people outside of your “consistent and trusted contacts” and to make all other social interactions virtual, to limit non-essential outings as much as possible and in scenarios where physical distancing cannot. be maintained with people outside your household, wear a mask.

“Right now, our most powerful tool is social distancing… In communities where cases are increasing rapidly, we need to limit our contacts as much as possible. This is what it will take to slow the spread of the virus, ”Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the press conference. “So when you think about seeing people outside your home, ask yourself, ‘Is this absolutely necessary? I know the situation is frustrating. I know it’s difficult, but it’s temporary. If we work together, the cases will come down. ”

At the time of the modeling release, there had been a total of 228,542 confirmed cases nationwide during the pandemic, and by the end of next week, that number is expected to rise to between 251,800 and 262,000 cases.

There have been a total of 10,074 deaths recorded from COVID-19, and that measure is also set to grow significantly over the next few days, with new numbers projecting between 10,285 and 10,400 deaths by November 8.

As has been the case throughout the health crisis, the incidence rate varies across provinces and territories, but typically in the past two weeks higher infection rates are reported, patients with COVID-19 are hospitalized at a higher rate than during the summer. , and deaths are increasing “gradually”.

Over the past week, Canada has experienced an average of 30 deaths per day. The current average age of death for people who die from COVID-19-related illness is 84 in Canada, but ranges from 19 to 107.

Currently, the average test positivity rate is approaching 4% nationwide, and the number of health regions reporting more than 50 cases per 100,000 has nearly doubled in recent weeks, with 34 regions currently recording this rate.

The rates of Canadians under 40 contracting the virus remain highest, but an increase in new cases is occurring in all age groups. Outbreaks also continue to be reported at the highest rates in long-term care facilities and retirement homes; in schools and nurseries; and following social gatherings such as weddings, funerals, and informal family or community celebrations.

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