Can Donald Trump win a second term in the 2020 US election?

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It looks like the former vice president can confidently count on around 230 votes from an electoral college from Democratic strongholds like California, which delivers 55 electoral college votes and currently sees Biden leading Trump by about 62% to 31 %.Biden then appears poised to garner an additional 30 votes in constituencies in far from certain states, but leaning in his direction in local polls, putting him within easy reach of the 270 target. That includes Virginia and Michigan, where he holds a 7% lead over Trump – similar to the gap between them nationally.

But as one goes down Biden’s list of ahead-ranked states – and into the areas of tinier gaps and more inaccurate polls – it becomes clear that about 128 more electoral votes are locked in 7. Oscillating states where Biden or Trump leads by less than 2 percent.

Those states, which include Florida, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, are the main battlegrounds of 2020, and a loss at all levels could be enough to prevent Biden from reaching the 270 to win the presidency, even with its great national lead.

Of course, while Trump’s victory is always possible, Biden has the obvious advantage: winning even one or two of the swing states could be enough to free him from the White House.

Trump, on the other hand, has a much steeper hill to climb, with Telegraph An analysis based on poll averages suggesting he must win at least four of the seven states – and every path to victory for Trump requires winning Texas.

Such close races mean that major campaign events – like the president’s Covid-19 diagnosis and apparent recovery – have the potential to tip the scales in these key states anyway.

Read more: Who won the final election debate?

Keep the base

If Trump is to have any chance of securing a second term, it is crucial that he retains – and builds on – his 2016 voting base.

In some of the main battlefield states, Trump has reversed the Democrats’ popular vote in large part because of his support among white males, generally older and less educated.

According to data from Pew Research, Trump achieved victory in 2016 with the support of more than two-thirds (67%) of white men over the age of 50. Among white non-college graduates, he garnered 64% of the vote. .

This contrasts with the support that has rallied for Hillary Clinton, with more than one in five (82%) non-white women over 50 and 82% of non-white women between the ages of 18 and 49.

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