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The second major variable affecting Alberta’s economy is the state of the global oil industry, Roach said. ATB predicts that the price of West Texas Intermediate will remain below US $ 50 next year and into 2022, with Alberta’s oil and gas industry capital spending likely remaining low next year.
Nonetheless, Roach said ATB’s latest forecast shouldn’t be seen as entirely gloomy, especially given the gravity of the situation at the height of the lockdown in April of this year.
“We are moving forward, we are going in the right direction. It will take time, it will not only come back, but we are seeing the growth coming back, ”Roach said. “I think a good metaphor is that in the spring the glass wasn’t just half empty, it had a hole in it. I think now we can look at this glass and see that it’s half full. We need it to keep increasing, but it is going in the right direction.