Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabu, United Arab Emirates this Saturday, September 26, 2020 with a double title and a solid supporting cast. The UFC 253 ESPN + pay-per-view (PPV) event pits UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya against undefeated contender Paulo Costa while Dominick Reyes takes on Jan Blachowicz for the vacant belt of light heavyweights.
The UFC 253 PPV main card also features a clash between top flyweight contenders Kai Kara-France and Brandon Royval, as well as featherweight prospect Hakeem Dawodu against compatriot Zubaira Tukhugov.
It’s hard to justify shell out $ 65 for a PPV in this economy, but here’s how to make it easier on your wallet.
What went wrong UFC Vegas 11?
Well, I said you might laugh at me if Johnny Walker pulls out another ridiculous first lap stop, and the offer stands. Ryan Spann has come close to having it on several occasions, but “almost” does not count in the sport. At least Tyson Nam and Mayra Bueno Silva secured a slight overall profit.
UFC 253 odds for the Undercard:
Brad Riddell (-335) contre Alex da Silva (+275)
Jake Matthews (-750) vs. Diego Sanchez (+525)
Shane Young (-125) vs. Ludovit Klein (+105)
Aleksa Camur (-160) against William Knight (+140)
Juan Espino (-290) vs. Jeff Hughes (+245)
Khadis Ibragimov (-155) against Danilo Marques (+135)
Thoughts: I see two newbies in the UFC having two very different introductions to the Octagon. Ludovit Klein is a great deal with a positive rating, while Aleksa Camur doesn’t get enough credit for how he’s outperforming “Contender Series” alum William Knight.
If you are not familiar with Klein it is worth a look. This guy looks like a top notch prospect at 25, with impressive power and speed at just 25. Shane Young has some experience in the Octagon, sure, but his victories were taken by Rolando Dy and Austin Arnett, who got a 2-7 combined in the world’s biggest fighting promotion. Klein is the bigger hitter and the more likely of the two to score a finish, so invest in a new face.
I don’t understand why people keep trying to take William Knight down at all costs – the man doesn’t have much to stand on other than leg kicks and one-two combinations. Camur is the best forward by a huge margin and has the pullout defense to keep the fight in his wheelhouse. As long as he doesn’t fall into the same trap that a lot of other fighters did and run out of steam in the grappling hook before being swept up and beaten, he should perform “Knightmare” without a problem.
UFC 253 odds for the main card:
Israël Adesanya (-170) vs. Paulo Costa (+150)
Dominick Reyes (-280) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+240)
Kai Kara-France (-240) against Brandon Royval (+200)
Ketlen Vieira (-170) against Sijara Eubanks (+150)
Zubaira Tukhugov (-120) contre Hakeem Dawodu (MÊME)
Thoughts: I went to Israel Adesanya…
I’ll go into more detail in my main card prediction piece later this week, but the TL; DR is:
- Costa only faced one strike technician in the Octagon, Uriah Hall, and took quite a few heavy shots before his pressure paid off. Adesanya moves exponentially better than Hall.
- Adesanya is three inches tall and eight inches of reach on him.
- Costa has no wrestling game to muzzle Adesanya’s attack.
I see it is a much easier task for Adesanya than Kelvin Gastelum or Yoel Romero. So bet accordingly.
On the underdog side, I like that Sijara Eubanks upsets Ketlen Vieira. Eubanks’ wrestling and cardio both looked robust against Julia Avila a few weeks ago, which is bad news for a simple top control specialist like Vieira. Additionally, Eubanks appears to have the advantage in hitting and has a superior BJJ pedigree, severely limiting Vieira’s chances of victory. I can’t choose Eubanks fights to save my life, but I hope the reasoning here is solid enough.
Best UFC 253 bets:
- Parlay – Aleksa Camur and Israel Adesanya: bet $ 60 to win $ 94.80
- Single bet – Ludovit Klein: bet $ 40 to win $ 42
- Single bet – Sijara Eubanks: bet $ 40 to win $ 60
With the kind of talent and matchmaking on display, I find it hard to imagine UFC 253 do not produce fireworks. See you on Saturday, Maniacs.