We are quickly exhausting the list of names for Atlantic hurricanes and may soon need to tap into the Greek alphabet. Although the United States has suffered its fair share of tropical impacts, including most recently Sally who made landfall in Alabama, Atlantic Canada has been spared. This could change in the coming week, however.
From a climatological point of view, tropical activity does not resume for Atlantic Canada until September and continues to be in the threatened zone until October. Both Tropical Depression Sally and Hurricane Teddy could impact Atlantic Canada, see latest forecast below.
REMAINING HEAVY SALLY RAIN
Residual moisture from what is now Tropical Depression Sally will travel from the Gulf Coast to Atlantic Canada over the next few days.
Residual moisture and a front that follows this weekend will not only increase the potential for more than 100mm of rain in parts of eastern Newfoundland, but will also be accompanied by very high winds. According to some models, parts of the Avalon Peninsula will experience winds in excess of 100 km / h on Saturday morning.
Rain will begin for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday afternoon, with heavy rain moving over central Newfoundland in the evening and overnight through Saturday.
Environment Canada has issued rain warnings in Newfoundland that trips from Friday morning to Saturday afternoon could be affected by heavy rains.
“Anyone planning to travel west during this time is advised to check the forecast for eastern Newfoundland, as almost double the precipitation is possible in these areas. Road travel can be dangerous or impossible, ”says Environment Canada.
“Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pools on the roads. Localized flooding in low areas is possible. Heavy rain combined with other weather factors, such as hail, wind, and lightning, will make outdoor activities dangerous. ”
The areas of eastern Newfoundland will receive the heaviest rain on Saturday morning, with winds gusting to over 100 km / h. Sally’s impacts are expected to wear off by Saturday afternoon.
Residents are encouraged to watch the weather reports here.
HURRICANE TEDDY PROJECTIONS
Hurricane Teddy is currently raging east of the Lesser Antilles and is officially a major hurricane, listed in Category 4.
Teddy will tackle Bermuda throughout the weekend and early next week, on a track similar to Hurricane Paulette, which made direct landfall less than a week ago.
This is a difficult task, as Bermuda’s target is incredibly small compared to the vastness of the Atlantic Ocean. Since the 1850s, less than 10 hurricanes have made landfall directly on the island, according to the National Hurricane Center.
After that the question is, “Where is Teddy going next?” There are a few scenarios that prediction models are currently sketching out.
One potential scenario would bring Teddy to the Maritimes in the form of a hurricane as early as Tuesday. Another scenario keeps Teddy off with only minor impacts on Atlantic Canada.
These scenarios look very different, but we will continue to monitor it in the coming days. The overall leadership model for Teddy can be determined by evaluating the upper levels of our atmosphere.
Watching these characteristics evolve over the next few days – especially a forecast for an upper level trough to follow over eastern Canada – will help clarify and determine which of these two scenarios is more likely.
The first concerns the late arrival of the trough in eastern Canada, which allows it to “pick up” Teddy and guide him due north towards the Maritimes, with a direct landing. In the second scenario, the dip is faster on arrival and guides Teddy away from the Maritimes on a track to the northeast, but grazing or remaining south of the Atlantic provinces.