Experts warn Labor Day will determine path of COVID-19 as model predicts 410,000 deaths

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Health experts warn that behaviors this Labor Day weekend will determine whether there will be a peak in COVID-19 in the fall – as a new forecast model predicts that more than 410,000 Americans could die from the COVID-19 by January if people don’t continue to wear masks.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation on Friday revised its forecasting model to predict deaths from COVID-19 will reach 410,000 by the end of the year.

This figure is more than double the current death toll of 186,800. The model predicts that deaths could also climb to 3,000 per day in December.

Epidemiologists said deaths could be reduced by around 30% if the majority of Americans wore masks, but warned that the wearing of masks is already on the decline across the country.

The death rate projected by the IHME model, which was cited by the White House coronavirus task force, would more than triple the current death rate of about 850 per day.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation on Friday revised its forecasting model to predict deaths from COVID-19 will reach 410,000 by the end of the year. Epidemiologists said deaths could be reduced by around 30% if the majority of Americans wore masks

Deaths have been declining nationwide for more than a month.

Coronavirus-related deaths are a lagging indicator and can potentially increase several weeks after new cases start to decline.

It comes as health experts have warned that Labor Day weekend will likely set the stage for what must happen in the fall amid the ongoing pandemic.

The United States, which has now passed 6.15 million infections, is averaging about 41,000 new cases of COVID-19 per day over the past week.

Cases are now leveling off following an initial sharp drop in late July, after outbreaks in Sunbelt states recorded average daily rates of 66,000.

Infections have increased in the United States after the previous holidays, including Memorial Day and July 4.

Dr William Schaffner, infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, said Labor Day has the potential to be an “accelerator weekend” given that infections are still on the rise in some Midwestern states. and the South.

“It’s another holiday and we’ll see what the general population does, how cautious or carefree they are,” Schaffner told CNBC.

“I’m very worried, frankly, because it seems that a very large part of our population wants to go out very freely in groups, without masks, without paying attention to social distancing. “

The United States, which has now passed 6.15 million infections, averages about 41,000 new cases of COVID-19 per day over the past week

The United States, which has now passed 6.15 million infections, is averaging about 41,000 new cases of COVID-19 per day over the past week

Deaths have been declining nationwide for more than a month and are currently averaging around 850 per day

Deaths have been declining nationwide for more than a month and are currently averaging around 850 per day

He fears the public will let their guard down this weekend given that infections have declined nationwide in the past two months.

“You will get a swing effect and I can predict that just as sure as I know the sun is going to rise in the east… We have to keep that going for months. It’s not a quick fix, ”he said.

“If there’s a tenuous commitment to social distancing and masking and all that stuff, it’s going to explode on Labor Day. “

It follows a similar warning from Dr Anthony Fauci who also fears there could be a huge increase in cases.

“We don’t want to see a repeat of the surges we’ve seen after other holiday weekends,” he told CNN on Thursday.

“We don’t want to see a surge in any way, but especially as we move across Labor Day and enter fall.

The CDC warned this week that daily infections are starting to increase in some states, particularly in the High Great Plains, Midwest and South.

States where COVID-19 cases are currently on the rise include Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, and Minnesota. In the south, there has been an increase in daily infections in West Virginia, North Carolina and Alabama.

New infections are the lowest since the end of June and have been declining nationally for six straight weeks now.  Over the past week, several states in the Midwest, including South Dakota and Iowa, have seen an increase in cases

New infections are the lowest since the end of June and have been declining nationally for six straight weeks now. Over the past week, several states in the Midwest, including South Dakota and Iowa, have seen an increase in cases

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