EIA sees global oil market balance by end of 2021

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OPEC + production cuts and cuts in the United States are expected to help global inventories continue to decline for the rest of the year and most of next year, resulting in a relatively balanced market by the end of 2021, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday.

The OPEC + deal and declining production elsewhere, especially in North America, brought global supply below demand for the first time since mid-2019, the EIA estimated, noting that the Supply deficit has helped inflate declining global stocks since June.

“The EIA expects stocks to continue to decline in the second half of 2020 and most of 2021, which will translate into a relatively balanced market by the end of next year,” he said in his September short-term energy outlook (STEO).

In August, global liquid fuel production averaged 91.5 million b / d, down 9.7 million b / d year-over-year, due to OPEC cuts + and the United States.

U.S. crude oil production in August fell to 10.8 million b / d from a recent low of 10.0 million b / d in May, as oil operators re-commissioned some wells in response to rising oil prices. prices after the fall in the second quarter, according to EIA estimates.

While some experts, officials and analysts say global inventories are declining and will continue to decline throughout the year, others have pointed to a resumption in failing demand and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases as reasons for pay attention to the prospect of inventory reduction. In the coming months.

The Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, for example, expects global oil inventories to continue to decline for the remainder of the year.

But another major commodities trader, Trafigura, expects a “supply heavy” market until the end of the year, with stocks building up by the end of 2020 as the resumption of demand stops.

By Charles Kennedy for Oil chauffage

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