Daily Fundamental Natural Gas Price Forecasts

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US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

This week’s EIA report covering the week ending September 18 is expected to be lighter than last week. There is a lot of interest in this report as traders want to know if the above-normal impression from last week was a one-time anomaly or reflected a looser market.

According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), “A Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from 68 to 82 Bcf, with a median of 77 Bcf, while estimates from a Wall Street Journal survey ranged from 71 to 85 Bcf, with an average of 77 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 13 analysts showed estimates ranging from 68 to 96 Bcf, with a median of 76 Bcf. NGI planned an injection of 71 Bcf. ”

Last year, the EIA recorded a construction of 97 Bcf for the period, and the five-year average is an injection of 80 Bcf.

Daily forecast

Continue to watch for price differentials. Currently, they indicate that the uptrend is best expressed in winter contracts (December to March). These bullish traders are betting on a normal winter, stable domestic heating demand and a pickup in consistent US LNG export needs in Asia and Europe.

If today’s EIA report is above the median, look for a sharp break at the front of the curve (October and November).

For the future, the wild card remains the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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