Britain could be stricken with 100 coronavirus deaths a day in three to four weeks, a senior government scientist has warned.
Professor Graham Medley, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said the triple-digit toll was “inevitable” as the virus remains dangerous to the community.
He arrived at the figure assuming a 1% viral death rate and 10,000 new infections reported each day.
“Even though (the death rate) is 0.8%, which I think would be a big success in terms of treatment, that still means we’re going to see deaths increase,” he told BBC Radio 4.
Britain recorded 24 deaths today in a preliminary tally as the UK death toll continues to climb. NHS England has announced 20 deaths, while 3 have been recorded in Wales and 1 in Northern Ireland. None have been recorded in Scotland.
Health officials have yet to confirm the final daily figure, which takes into account data from all facilities across the UK. The early tally for England only includes laboratory confirmed casualties at hospitals run by the NHS.
At the height of the pandemic between April 2 and April 18, Britain was recording more than 800 deaths per day, while recording around 4,000 positive cases per day.
But testing capacity fell far behind demand, meaning the vast majority of cases were missed. The Covid Symptom Study app, which has 4.2 million contributors, suggested that at present there are as many as 100,000 new infections per day, indicating a death rate of 0.8 %.
The World Health Organization says the coronavirus death rate is between 0.5% and 1%, based on available data.
Professor Graham Medley, a SAGE member, said the UK could face triple-digit deaths in two to three weeks, with the virus’s death rate standing at around 1%.
IS THE BRITISH COVID-19 EPIDEMIC RECEIVING?
Some top scientists had insisted there was no real increase in cases because the test’s positivity rate – the number of cases found for each swab taken – hadn’t changed wildly. . However, this no longer appears to be the case. NHS test and trace data shows nearly 3.3% of those tested test positive compared to a low of 1.1 in July
Britain’s coronavirus outbreak appears to be accelerating again, official data shows.
On Friday, 6,874 more cases of Covid-19 were on record, meaning the seven-day moving average is 54% higher than it was a week ago. MailOnline analysis shows that this is the sixth consecutive day that the average compared to the previous week has increased.
Before last Saturday, the weekly growth rate of coronaviruses had plummeted every day for an entire week. It had gone from a peak of 84% on September 12 to 20% on September 19.
It comes as top government science advisers Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance have terrified the nation with their grim prediction that cases could reach 50,000 a day by mid-October, if left unchecked. . They claimed infections were doubling every week, along with growing epidemics in Spain and France.
But scientists rejected the claims, warning they were based on old data that was based on only a few hundred positive cases. Even Boris Johnson has distanced himself from the claims, saying the epidemic could double for up to every 20 days.
Other figures from NHS Test and Trace also suggest that cases have declined over the past week. But the latest statistics – released yesterday – only go back to September 16, meaning any spikes over the past week have yet to be confirmed in another government data set.
Speaking on the Today program, Professor Medley, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: ‘Treatments have improved, the way the virus is transmitted will be different, but it is nonetheless about a dangerous virus and it inevitably will be. lead to deaths.
“Now, if there are that many – in February and March, we were basically assuming that one percent of infections would lead to deaths. Now even though it’s 0.8% 100, which I think would be a great success in terms of treatment, still means we’re going to see more deaths.
“At the level of 10,000 (cases) that we’re seeing right now, that means in three or four weeks we’re going to see 100 deaths a day.
“In order to prevent this process from increasing again, we have to make sure that this transmission stops now, because this doubling time will continue. The things we are doing now won’t stop 100 people dying a day, but they will prevent it from progressing much higher.
The UK epidemic was initially concentrated in people aged 20 to 40, according to official data, but has since spread to older segments of the population who are at higher risk of contracting the disease.
UK deaths hit 34 yesterday, a 73% increase from the weekly moving average. The number of daily cases identified yesterday reached a record 6,874.
The figures show that children and those under the age of 45 have a much lower risk of dying from coronavirus than those over the age of 75.
Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that only four deaths linked to Covid-19 have been recorded in children aged between one and 14 in England and Wales, less than 0.01% of the total. And 574 were recorded among 15 to 44 year olds, or 0.96 percent of the total.
In comparison, 39,058 people aged 75 and over have died from the virus, or 65% of the total.
The difference led a scientific article published in Nature in July to conclude that people aged 80 and over are more than a hundred times more likely to die from the virus than patients aged 40 and under.
The World Health Organization has calculated that the coronavirus death rate could be as low as 0.5% after comparing the number of deaths and the number of infected.
This gave the death rate from infection, which was calculated from data from surveys carried out on a representative random sample of populations in different countries.
It comes after the Daily Mail revealed that as many as 75,000 people could die from the coronavirus crisis over the next five years, but only 41,000 are believed to be due to the virus.
The numbers were presented in a surprising study presented to SAGE which warned that the cure for the coronavirus could be worse than the pill itself.
He said 16,000 people died from the disease in March and April alone, and another 26,000 are expected to lose their lives in a year if people stay away from O&E and welfare problems persist.
Scientists at King’s College London (KCL) behind the COVID Symptom Tracker mobile app estimate there were at least 16,310 daily cases of the disease last week, more than double the 7,536 estimated last week
And an additional 31,900 people could die over the next five years from missed cancer diagnoses, canceled surgeries and the health effects of a recession.
The death toll directly linked to the virus last night stood at 41,936.
The estimates, compiled by officials from the Ministry of Health, the Office for National Statistics and the Home Office, were presented to Sage at a meeting on July 15. The documents pointed out that nothing had been done to stop the spread of the virus. in March, 400,000 people could have died from Covid.