BP Bombshell: India’s oil demand could peak in 2025

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The world’s third-largest importer of oil, India, will be the main source of growth in energy demand through 2050 in any scenario concerning government energy transition policies. However, India may not be as a key driver of global oil demand growth as previously thought.

It was one of the BP Energy Outlook 2020 posts, in which the supermajor said global demand for oil may have already peaked last year, as oil consumption may never return to levels. before the pandemic.

India’s oil consumption could peak as early as 2025 at around 6 million barrels per day (b / d), up from 5.1 million b / d of demand in 2018, according to two of the three scenarios BP examined in its outlook: fast and net zero.

In the third scenario, Business As Usual (BAU), BP assumes that government policies, technologies, and societal preferences will continue to evolve in a manner and at a rate seen in the recent past. In this scenario, growing oil demand in India still has a long way to go, with oil consumption reaching 9.7 million bpd in 2050.

In the Net Zero scenario, India’s oil demand falls to just 2.4 million bpd in 2050, while the Fast scenario – assuming a significant increase in global carbon prices – India’s oil demand India in 2050 will be broadly stable compared to 2018, at 5.2 million. bpj, BP estimates.

It is very likely that the future demand for oil, in India and in the world, will be some kind of combination of the three scenarios presented by BP. But it is also very likely that the growth in demand for oil, in India and around the world, will experience a seismic shift amid the energy transition and government policies to support economic recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic. Related: Oil Rises After EIA Confirms Crude Inventory Drawdown

India’s primary energy consumption is expected to more than double by 2050 in all three scenarios, but the only growing fossil fuel in all scenarios is natural gas, supported by growing population and prosperity, said BP.

In addition, renewable energies are expected to experience strong growth in all scenarios, becoming the largest source of energy in 2050.

Overall, the strong growth in primary energy consumption in India will be primarily driven by renewables and, to a lesser extent, natural gas, BP said.

Globally, we may have passed peak oil demand last year as fuel consumption may never recover from the decline caused by the pandemic, BP said.

In all BP scenarios, global oil demand is expected to decline by 2050. The Rapid and Net Zero scenarios assume that demand for oil has already peaked, while in the BAU scenario, demand is expected to peak early of the 2020s, due to the increasing electrification and efficiency of road transport. According to BP estimates, the rise in electric vehicles will lead to a peak in demand for oil for transportation between the mid to late 2020s.

As BP put it, these three scenarios “are not predictions but, based on alternative assumptions about societal policies and preferences, are designed to help explore the range of possible outcomes over the next 30 years.” .

The future of the energy mix in India and the world over the next three decades will be some kind of combination of these assumptions and will depend on government policies, consumer preferences and cost competition between renewable and energy sources. fossil fuels.

Whatever the reality, BP’s energy outlook – which aims to reinvent itself as an integrated energy company from an international oil company – is a stern warning to the Big Oil, OPEC and Oil bulls that the growth in oil demand could be a thing of the past.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for OilUSD

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