The earnings schedule is relatively sparse this week. Builder
reports Monday, followed by
and Progressive Release August sales data Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.
The main event on the economic calendar is the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which ends Wednesday. A change in interest rates is unlikely, but President Jerome Powell may have more to say about the central bank’s monetary policy framework and its willingness to let inflation exceed 2%.
Lennar publishes its quarterly results.
is hosting a two-day virtual investor day to discuss its drug pipeline.
Adobe and FedEx report their income.
is hosting a virtual investor day where senior management, including CEO Miguel Patricio, will discuss the company’s outlook.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September. The consensus estimate is for a reading of 7.5, down from 3.7 in August.
The Labor Office The statistics show the export and import prices for August. Economists are forecasting a 0.4% month-over-month increase in export prices, compared to a gain of 0.8% in July. Import prices are expected to climb 0.6%, a shade below July’s 0.7% peak. In recent months, the rise in import prices has been mainly due to rising fuel prices.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary policy decision. The FOMC is likely to hold its own with interest rates close to zero, but could explain its recently updated inflation framework.
National association of Home Builders publishes its NAHB / Wells Housing Market Index for September. Expectations are for a reading of 78, even with the August figure. The August reading matched data for December 1998 as the highest in the index’s 35-year history. The housing market has made a remarkably rapid and strong recovery from the lows of the pandemic. A by-product of this has been soaring timber prices.
The Census Bureau reports August retail sales. Consumer spending is expected to increase 1.3% month over month. Excluding automobiles, estimates call for a gain of 1.5%. This compares to jumps of 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively, in July.
The Census Bureau presents residential construction data for August. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.44 million private housing starts, up from 1.5 million in July. Like much of the housing market, housing starts rebounded strongly from their pandemic low of 934,000 in April.
The labor department reports initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12. Weekly jobless claims remain historically high, but fell from an average of 1.5 million in June to 992,250 in August.
University of Michigan publishes its consumer confidence index for September. Economists are forecasting a reading of 75.5, slightly ahead of August’s 74.1.
Le Conference Board publishes its leading economic index for August. Expectations are for a 1.3% gain, roughly the same with the previous month. The LEI has increased for three consecutive months, but the pace of change has slowed, suggesting that the postpandemic recovery is faltering.
Write to Nicholas Jasinski at [email protected]