We’ll be stuck in this recession for years, say economists


About half of members of the National Association of Business Economists expect U.S. gross domestic product – the economy’s broadest measure – not to return to its pre-pandemic level until 2022 A majority of these experts also say the US job market will be back. at its February 2022 level at the earliest.

Almost 80% say there is a one in four chance of a double dip – an economic downturn that begins to recover and worsens again before fully recovering.

NABE’s findings are based on 235 responses to its August Economic Policy Survey.

Washington has deployed an unprecedented stimulus package in response to the pandemic recession. But economists are divided over the government’s actions: 40% think not enough has been done, while 37% think the response was adequate. Others think the government has done too much.

Although Congress is unable to agree on the next stimulus package, more than half of NABE economists nonetheless believe that supplemental unemployment insurance and the paycheck protection program for small businesses should be extensive. Most also believe the next stimulus package will be $ 1 trillion or more. The initial stimulus deal signed in March was worth $ 2 trillion.

All of this economic turbulence takes place during an election year. The majority of experts polled – 62% – said that Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden would be better for U.S. economic growth than President Donald Trump.

Either way, beating the virus, promoting economic recovery, and health policy are the top three issues economists see for the next administration.

Even though the U.S. deficit has exploded during this period of high government spending, most economists don’t think this should be a concern just yet, as the stimulus is needed to get through the crisis in the first place.


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