The Week Ahead – Statistics, Geopolitics, COVID-19 and the Jackson Hole at a Glance


For the dollar:

It’s another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

In the 1st half, August consumer confidence and July durable and basic goods orders are expected.

Expect consumer confidence figures on Tuesday and core durable goods orders on Wednesday to be the main drivers.

The focus will then change to 2nd estimate GDP figures and weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday.

A drop in jobless claims to less than 1 million will be necessary on this day… The markets will also seek an upward revision of the GDP figures.

On Friday, July inflation and personal spending figures and the August Chicago PMI will be the focus of attention.

The finalized consumer confidence figures for the August and July trade figures are expected to have a moderate impact.

On the monetary policy front, the Jackson Hole symposium will be at the center of discussions on Thursday and Friday. Following last week’s FOMC meeting minutes and positive PMI numbers, Powell will be getting a lot of attention.

Far from the economic calendar, geopolitics and the COVID-19 stimulus bill will also have an influence …

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up 0.16% to 93.247.

For their:

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic data front.

Tuesday, finalized 2nd Quarterly GDP figures and business climate figures for August are expected in Germany.

Revisions up to 1st estimating GDP figures and stable business climate figures would be positive for the EUR.

The focus will then be on German consumer confidence figures and finalized 2nd French GDP figures for the quarter on Friday.

As August draws to a close, Brexit talks will also be a factor of the week.

EUR / USD ended the week down 0.38% to $ 1.1797.

For the pound:

It’s also a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. There are no hard statistics meant to provide direction to the pound.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey is due to speak on Friday. Following fairly disastrous GDP figures for the 2nd quarter, any chatter about monetary policy will have an influence. The good news for Bailey is that private sector PMIs impressed last week …

Far from the economic calendar, the Brexit gossip is likely to grow in the week and be the main driver.

GBP / USD ended the week up 0.03% to $ 1.3090.

For the loonie:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

However, the markets will have to wait until Friday. 2nd Quarterly GDP figures are expected and will have a significant impact on the loonie.

The monthly and quarterly figures will have the greatest influence.

Far from the economic calendar, sentiment towards the global economic outlook and geopolitics will remain key drivers.

The loonie ended the week up 0.67% to C $ 1.3177 against the US dollar.


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