In what has already been an above-average hurricane season, with several named storms being the firsts of their particular letter, forecasters are eyeing what appear to be the next entrants to the tropical storm club.
TROPICAL STORM LAURA
In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression 13 morphed into Tropical Storm Laura, the 12th oldest named storm on record. Laura is currently 415 kilometers east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with maximum sustained winds of around 75 km / h, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
« [It is expected to] become a Category 1 hurricane as it heads east into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. However, there are major differences in the intensity predictions of the models – ranging from a major hurricane to complete dissipation of the storm, ”says The Weather Network meteorologist Dr Doug Gillham.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, United States Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Saba and Saint Eustache, Saint Martin, Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Saint Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla and Montserrat, the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti and the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole Saint-Nicolas to the border with the Dominican Republic.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
Deeper in the Caribbean, Tropical Depression 14 is expected to strengthen over the next two days and become a tropical storm by Saturday.
“Tropical Depression 14 is also expected to become a hurricane early next week as it spreads through the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with landings along the Louisiana or Texas coast,” Gillham adds.
However, the timing and strength of the hurricane is somewhat uncertain as it could be influenced by the interaction with what is currently Tropical Storm Laura. A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Herrero in Cancun, Mexico.
The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico in the form of a tropical storm on Sunday, forecasters added with the agency, in which case it would take the Marco name.
“The system is expected to be near or at the strength of hurricanes when it reaches Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. Some weakening is expected as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. Subsequently, a strengthening is expected Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, ”said the NHC.
Residents of areas of concern are urged to closely monitor forecasts and prepare in advance in the event of an evacuation.
TWO POSSIBLE FALLS IN THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK
Weather Network meteorologist Erin Wenckstern said Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression 14 are expected to intensify and move towards the Gulf of Mexico, which could potentially hit the US Gulf of Mexico coast around the same time. next week, which is “very unusual”.
Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach says the shortest time between two separate hurricane falls to hit the United States is 11 p.m., between Hurricane Treasure Coast and Hurricane Cuba / Brownsville September 4 and 5, 1933.
The shortest time between two separate #hurricane landings to hit the United States (excluding Overseas Territories) is 23 hours between Hurricane on the Treasury Coast and Hurricane Cuba / Brownsville on the 4th and September 5, 1933. #Hanna #Douglas pic.twitter. com / 8dNqxD6E5j
– Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 27, 2020
“Hurricane forecasting is a delicate act. Multiple factors contribute to the strength and direction of a hurricane, including wind, ocean temperatures, and the general atmospheric configuration, which directs the storm. Add a second storm to the mix and the forecast becomes exponentially more complex. because the two storms can interact and affect each other, ”says Wenckstern.
There have never been two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States at the same time, according to the NHC. The closest event occurred in 1933, when a major hurricane made landfall in South Texas, while a separate hurricane weakened into a tropical storm after passing through the Florida peninsula, as the ‘reported Reuters.
A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa produces a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move further offshore over the Far Eastern tropical Atlantic today.
This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, with slow development possible throughout the weekend, as it moves west-northwest at 24-32 km / h at across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Conditions should be favorable for some development over the next few days, and the system could become a tropical depression before environmental conditions become less favorable for development early next week. There is a 40% chance that it will become a tropical depression within the next five days.
Follow the development of these August storms.