There is a system of low pressure coming from our neighbors to the south which leads to the risk of showers and thunderstorms. in eastern Ontario, storm potential peaks early Sunday afternoon. The threat includes the potential for one or two tornadoes. More volatile weather is forecast for Monday, with seasonal temperatures, but warmer days are ahead. Details and schedule below.
- Sunday afternoon, severe storm threat in the east, including tornado potential
- Heaviest rain in cottage country in the Ottawa Valley
- Seasonal temperatures until Monday, the heat returns next weekend
- Keep an eye on the weather ALERTS in your region
SUNDAY: STORM THREAT, SERIOUS POTENTIAL INCLUDING TORNADO THREAT IN THE EAST
On Sunday morning, most of the heaviest rains will have fallen. However, the stormy weather will continue with an increased risk of potentially severe thunderstorms in the afternoon.
The threat of storms will be much more widespread on Sunday, the risk of severe storms will be confined to the eastern regions, from Kingston to Ottawa, while also cutting areas of cottages and along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario.
Eastern Ontario could see the development of supercells, where favorable directional wind shear could result in a tornado or two in the early afternoon, resulting from the push of a warm front. Severe storms will become more isolated in the evening, dissipating overnight.
Storms that cross the severe threshold can also be characterized by heavy rains, small hail and strong winds.
When it comes to temperature, daytime peaks will be seasonal in the high 20s in most places, but some areas can be a few degrees cooler, with humidex values dropping slightly.
BEYOND: NOT ADJUSTED BUT SEASONAL MONDAY, THE WARMTH BACK NEXT WEEKEND
Monday will have a similar unstable pattern due to a persistent trough, which will lead to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. Seasonal temperatures will continue.
Until Monday evening, parts of southwestern Ontario can receive 40 to 50 mm of rain, with widespread totals of 30 to 40 mm over most of southern Ontario, extending into ‘to chalets and eastern sectors.
Beyond that, temperatures could drop below a few degrees below the season by Tuesday, as the front is expected to usher in slightly cooler air. Daytime highs will be somewhere between the low to mid-20s. However, the heat will return next weekend.
Check back as we continue to monitor the forecast.