New model estimates coronavirus deaths in New York City through December


NEW YORK – A highly-cited coronavirus projection model this week released updated estimates on how the pandemic could impact New York through December.New projections by the Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) released Thursday, estimates the state’s death toll from the virus will reach 33,945 by December 1 – an increase of 1,189 deaths.

According to the most recent data, there have been 418,928 cases of COVID-19 and 32,756 total deaths in New York City since the start of the pandemic, according to Johns Hopkins. The IHME analysis also found that if New Yorkers consistently wear face masks, 472 lives could be saved through December.

The model, which the Washington Post has called America’s “most influential coronavirus model,” is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.

Updated forecasts from IHME researchers indicate that the death toll from COVID-19 in America is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by December 1. If 95% of the country’s population routinely wear masks, around 70,000 lives could be saved, according to institute data.

The coronavirus killed more than 160,000 Americans on Friday. Researchers said they expected 140,000 more to die from the coronavirus by December 1. But there are ways to prevent some infections and deaths, the IHME said.

“We are witnessing a roller coaster ride in the United States,” said IHME Director Dr Christopher Murray. “It seems people wear masks and socially distance themselves more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop people let their guard down and stop taking these steps to protect themselves and protect themselves. others – which, of course, leads to more infections. . And the potentially fatal cycle begins again. ”

Infections in hot spots in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas are easing due to a combination of local mandates on the use of masks and bar and restaurant closures, notes the report. But deaths are increasing and will continue to rise for the next week or two, Murray said.

“Public behavior had a direct correlation with the transmission of the virus and, therefore, the number of deaths,” Murray said. “Such efforts to act with more caution and responsibility will be an important aspect of the forecast for COVID-19 and the upward and downward trends in individual states over the coming months and year. ”

The IHME model assumes that some states will re-impose mandates – including non-essential business closures and home orders.

These new restrictions will need to be put in place when the daily death rate reaches eight per million. As a result, the model estimates that these states will have to re-impose warrants within the following deadlines:

  • August – Arizona, Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina.
  • September – Georgia and Texas.
  • October – Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Oregon.
  • November – Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin.

However, if the use of masks is increased to 95%, the return of stricter terms could be delayed by six to eight weeks on average, the IHME said.

You can view the full analysis of the IHME here.


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