Joe Biden’s lead in crucial battlefield states is narrower than that of Hillary Clinton four years ago, despite a major national advantage over President Donald Trump. According to the RealClearPolitics average of the presidential polls, Democratic candidate Biden has a 7.1 point lead – narrower than 9.3 points a month ago, but big enough that his lead. gone be confident. At this point in 2016, the same poll average gave Ms. Clinton a six-point lead.
The comparisons, circulated on Twitter by Republican poll guru Frank Luntz, sparked a wave of reminders among Democrats not to become overconfident, especially because the election is generally expected to be very close.
Lewis Goodall, editor-in-chief of the BBC Newsnight, even floated the idea that there might be a tie.
Attaching an image of an evenly divided electoral map, Mr Goodall recently wrote on Twitter: ‘Looking at some of the more recent polls and (assuming the race will shrink further) I can’t believe this electoral map is not at least half decent. possibility.
“Cue political carnage. ”
To win the presidency, a candidate must win 270 electoral votes, or the majority of the 538 voters at stake in the election.
However, it is possible that a presidential election will end in a tie for the Electoral College, 269 to 269.
JUST IN: Ed Davey’s plot to force Queen to end no Brexit deal exposed
That would mean that even if Mr. Biden does not win, Mr. Trump could be barred from being re-elected president by his rival, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
In the event of a tie, the presidential election is decided in the US House of Representatives by a “contingent election”, each state delegation having one vote.
Only the first three candidates in terms of electoral votes are taken into account. Whichever candidate wins the majority of states, or 26, becomes president.
As a member of the House, MP Pelosi could therefore help ensure that Mr. Trump does not get the keys to the Oval Office in the event of a tie.
During this time, the US Senate elects the vice president, but only the first two candidates are considered. Whichever candidate wins the majority of senators, or 51, becomes vice-president.
In this scenario, Mr. Biden could become US president and Republican candidate Mike Pence could become his vice president.
Philip Hammond’s “warm ties” with China revealed [INSIGHT]
Johnson’s secret weapon in US-UK trade talks under Joe Biden [ANALYSIS]
EU takeover: why Ireland’s future after COVID is in EU hands [REVEALED]
Alternatively, Mr. Trump could be joined by Kamala Harris.
Conditional elections are extremely rare, having taken place only three times in American history, all in the early 1800s.
In 1800, Thomas Jefferson was opposed to his own running mate in a contingent election due to problems with the original electoral process.
In 1824, the presence of four candidates divided the electoral college, and Andrew Jackson lost the contingent election to John Quincy Adams despite winning a plurality of popular and electoral votes.
In 1836, unfaithful voters in Virginia refused to vote for Martin Van Buren’s running mate, Richard Mentor Johnson, denying him a majority of the electoral vote and forcing the Senate to elect him in a contingent election.