Isaias followed near South Florida this morning. New Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Released in the Carolinas

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  • Isaias will follow near the east coast of Florida until Sunday evening.
  • Rain bands, tropical storm force winds, and storm surge flooding are potential impacts.
  • It will then head to the Carolinas later Monday and Monday evening in the form of a tropical storm.
  • The tropical storm will cross the northeast from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) will crawl north near the east coast of Florida until Sunday evening before heading to the Carolinas and on the east coast to northern New England at the start of this week.

Isaias continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear and is now unlikely to regain the intensity of hurricanes. But the tropical storm will still bring heavy rains, gusty winds and storm surges flooding parts of the east coast.

Watches, Warnings and Current Conditions

(PLUS: Hurricane season terms you should know)

Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect from parts of the east coast of Florida to southeastern North Carolina. The latest warnings and watches are shown on the map below.

Watches and warnings

(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when such conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Isaias is currently centered just off the south coast of Florida. However, much of the storm’s precipitation is east of its center of circulation.

Florida’s east coast can expect bands of rain and strong, gusty winds as Isaias heads north on Sunday.

Current satellite, radar and winds

Latest forecast

Isaias is expected to maintain its intensity as a strong tropical storm as it moves from eastern Florida near or off the southeast coast through Monday. The traffic center is expected to land permanently Monday night or early Tuesday in South Carolina or southeastern North Carolina.

From there, the storm will move rapidly northeast near parts of the northeast coast to north to New England from Tuesday to Wednesday.

(PLUS: Depth forecast for the central Atlantic and northeast)

Current information and planned path

(The area shaded in red indicates the potential path to the center of the system. It is important to note that impacts (especially heavy rains, heavy waves, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its intended path. .)

Potential impacts

Vent

Isaias produces strong gusts of wind and bands of heavy rain over the northern Bahamas and increasingly over southern Florida.

Current wind field

(The orange circle shows the extent of tropical storm force winds in the system (at least 39 mph). The purple circle indicates the extent of hurricane force winds (at least 74 mph), according to the National Hurricane Center.)

Eastern Florida could see tropical storm conditions (winds 39 to 73 mph) spread north through Sunday evening. These conditions will shift to coastal Georgia and South Carolina on Monday, followed by North Carolina on Monday evening and Tuesday.

Keep in mind that the winds will be strongest near the coast and in tall buildings.

There could be scattered power outages and tree damage in areas subject to stronger wind gusts.

(The times shown show that winds of at least 40 mph are expected for a given community with a higher chance of seeing those winds shown in red and purple.)

Here’s what the wind field could look like in 12 hours with the strongest gusts hitting the Florida coast.

Storm surge

A dangerous storm surge is possible along the east coast of Florida and parts of the Carolinas.

Storm surge watches were issued from Jupiter Inlet in Ponte Vedra, Florida, and from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level is possible if the peak wave occurs at the time of high tide.

The most worrying high tide in eastern Florida is Sunday evening. In the Carolinas, the Monday night high tide could have the highest water levels.

Storm surge forecast

(Data from the National Hurricane Center)

The swells generated by Isaias arrive along the southeastern coast of the United States, causing high waves and the danger of rip currents. The surf will remain high until the Isaias pass.

Rain floods

Isaias has the potential to produce the following precipitation totals along its path early this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

-East Florida: 2-4 inches, with maximum isolated totals of 6 inches.

-Northeast Florida and Georgia Coast: 1 to 3 inches

-Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic: 2 to 5 inches, with maximum isolated totals of 7 inches

-Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rains could trigger flash floods in some of these areas. Isolated minor to moderate river floods are also possible in parts of the eastern states.

To learn more about the possible impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, read our latest discussion here.

Precipitation forecast

(This should be interpreted as an overview of where the heaviest rains can fall and can move depending on the predicted path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts can occur when bands of rain stagnate. over a period of a few hours.)

Tornadoes

Isaias could also cause short-lived tornadoes along its path along the east coast.

An isolated threat is possible from late Monday and early Tuesday from the coast of South Carolina to eastern North Carolina and the far southeast of Virginia.

The risk of an isolated tornado could spread to the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts from Tuesday to Tuesday evening.

History of the storm

Isaias is the earliest named ninth Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. The previous record was Irene on August 7, 2005.

Typically, the ninth named tropical system occurs in the Atlantic Basin in early October, meaning this year’s pace is more than two months ahead of average.

(PLUS: Atlantic hurricane season 2020 is at an all-time high)

Heavy rains caused severe flash flooding in several parts of Puerto Rico. Just under 4.5 inches of rain was measured in San Juan on Thursday.

Numerous fallen trees, landslides and flooding have been reported in southwest Puerto Rico, according to local emergency management. Flooding of the river was recorded by USGS gauges at several locations in Puerto Rico.

(NEWS: Murderous Isaias caused extensive damage in the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico)

Heavy rains and high winds move away from New Providence Island, including the capital of the Bahamas, Nassau. A 50 mph gust of wind was timed at Nassau International Airport, and power was cut in parts of the island as a precaution.

(RECENT NEWS: Impacts of Isaias in the Bahamas)

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on the latest weather news, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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