Unemployment claims rise for the first time since May

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Flashing work warning lights

Signs that the economic recovery is over continue to mount.

Continuing claims decreased from 16,151,000 to 17,018,000 for the week ending July 18.

Initial requests increased for the second week.

Initial State unemployment claims

After trending downward for 16 weeks, initial claims increased last week and increased again this week.

Note: My tables of initial claims and continuing claims are seasonally adjusted. The following PUAs and totals are NOT seasonally adjusted.

Four factors of continuous complaint

  1. Continuing complaints delay initial complaints by one week.
  2. People can find jobs and drop out of unemployment lists.
  3. People can expire their benefits and drop the reels.
  4. People can retire and drop the rolls.

Basic principles of unemployment benefit

It’s week 19 of the pandemic.

Workers in most states receive 26 weeks of unemployment benefits according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

  • Workers in most states are entitled to up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular publicly funded unemployment compensation program,
  • Six states offer fewer weeks and one provides more.
  • Under the CARES Act Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic, all states provide an additional 13 weeks of federally funded Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Assistance (PEUC) benefits to people who exhaust their benefits regular state.
  • There are additional weeks of federally funded EB in states with high unemployment (up to 13 or 20 weeks depending on state laws).
  • The maximum number of weeks of Unemployment Pandemic Assistance (PUA) for leavers is 39 minus the number of weeks of Unemployment Insurance and Extended Benefits (EB) received.
  • No PEUC or PUA are available after December 31, 2020.

State exceptions

  • Massachusetts offers up to 30 weeks of unemployment insurance, except when a federal extended benefit program is in place (as is currently the case) or during periods of low unemployment (as was previously the case). ‘in February), when the maximum drops to 26 weeks.
  • Montana provides up to 28 weeks of user interface.
  • Michigan normally provides up to 20 weeks of user interface, but in the COVID-19 emergency, that has increased to 26 weeks.
  • South Carolina and Missouri offer up to 20 weeks of unemployment insurance.
  • Arkansas offers up to 16 weeks of regular benefits.
  • Kansas provided 16 weeks of unemployment insurance before COVID-19, but this was extended to 26 weeks until April 2021;
  • Alabama currently offers up to 14 weeks of user interface for new registrants, with an additional five-week extension for those registered in a state-approved training program;
  • Georgia was providing 14 weeks of unemployment insurance, but in the COVID-19 emergency, which has grown to 26 weeks;
  • Florida currently offers up to 12 weeks of user interface; and
  • North Carolina currently offers up to 12 weeks of user interface.

State benefits expired

  1. Alabama
  2. Florida
  3. North Carolina

South Carolina and Missouri benefits expire after an additional week for those affected early.

State claims provide an incomplete picture

State claims do not give the full picture as many people are not eligible for unemployment insurance.

For example, the self-employed are not eligible for state unemployment insurance even if they contribute to the system.

The self-employed and small businesses were eligible for loans which, under certain conditions, will not have to be repaid. Self-employed workers are also eligible for 13 weeks of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Assistance (PEUC), but this may have expired.

Primary PUA complaints

The primary PUA covers those who are not eligible to make state claims. The report delays initial claims by 2 weeks and continuing claims by one week.

Based on initial state claims and upside down state reopenings, I expect that number to increase in the coming weeks, but seasonality could skew the numbers otherwise.

All continuing complaints

Report on all continuing complaints as of July 30, 2020

All continuing claims are the sum of ongoing state claims plus PUA claims and all other federal programs.

Over 30 million people receive some form of unemployment insurance.

Double counting?

Some suggest that the “all continuing claims” report reports double counting. This is not the case. People are entitled to benefits at the state level or the federal level, but not both.

However, not all continuous claims are a good measure of the unemployment rate, as they include part-time workers as well as other workers who do not fit the official category of unemployed.

Unemployment reference week

The BLS measures unemployment by survey in the week that includes the 13th of the month.

For the month of July, that is to say the week ending July 18. 17,018,000 complaints continue. This compares to 19,231,000 for June.

Over 30 million people on unemployment benefits

As reported on Sunday, the clock just ran out of $ 600 in weekly unemployment benefits.

About 130 million people are receiving some form of pandemic assistance.

Discount Details

  • The GOP proposes to cut improved unemployment benefits from $ 600 to $ 200 per week until September. This is in addition to what recipients receive from state unemployment insurance.
  • The GOP also proposes to set the maximum aid at 70% of a worker’s previous salary, with a cap of $ 500 per week.

Those who have little or no salary will be hammered this week.

“So far on Covid Deal that we don’t really care”

These are huge numbers, especially those who received no pay.

Nonetheless, Trump says: ‘We’re so far from a Covid deal that we don’t really care’

Philosophically speaking

Philosophically, people shouldn’t earn more from being unemployed than a job.

Politically speaking, Republicans just stepped on a mine.

« We don’t really care“- That says it all.

Over 62 million people had no pay last week

Yesterday I commented that over 62 million people did not have a salary last week

These are non-retirees who said they were not paid last week.

87.333 million people expect a loss of income in the next four weeks. The loss of income is per household and not individually.

The data comes from the Census Bureau Household Pulse Surveys.

Click the link above for five related graphics.

Mish



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