“I can assure you that saudi Arabia will not only be the last producer, but saudi Arabia will produce all the hydrocarbon molecules, and that it will put them to good use… It will be done in the most respectful way of the environment and the most secure and the most durable. “Said Abdulaziz, who was interviewed on the prospects of the oil market in 2050 at a virtual conference organized by the Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII-I) of saudi Arabia.
Abdulaziz said that saudi Arabia ” will even be the last and the largest producer of hydrocarbons “, referring to the year 2050.
But saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons? And what is his perspective of legitimate be the largest producer of oil in 2050?
To unpack this, as the prince claims, we must first understand the classification of hydrocarbons. A hydrocarbon is an organic compound that contains only carbon and hydrogen. This includes the oil, natural gas and condensate.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons?
The oil production of saudi Arabia in 2019, which includes the crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels – this would include liquids and condensates from natural gas plants – average 11,81 million b / d, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). To 12% of the global total, it is not surprising that saudi Arabia has as much influence on the market, especially when it is in cahoots with the rest of the members of OPEC.
Russia is also up there, producing an average of 11.49 million b / d, or 11% of the global total. Therefore, it is not surprising, then, that when you associate Russia and saudi Arabia to “stabilize” the world’s supply of oil in order to balance with demand, this creates a power production of crude oil is unmatched.
But individually, saudi Arabia is not the king of oil production, for his sworn enemy – the country that has sought to cancel all production quotas that OPEC could find, this is the United States. Alone, the United States produces 19,51 million barrels of oil (and other petroleum liquids) per day, beating both saudi Arabia and Russia, and controlling 19% of the global supplies of oil.
Other countries are much further down the list, none of them producing more than half of Russia to the third place. However, Canada and China – no. 4 and no. 5, respectively – deserve to be mentioned.But saudi Arabia hopes to be “still” the largest producer of hydrocarbons in 2050. If they are not now, what are the chances that they will be in thirty years?
Can be offset with the great plan saudi arabian national Vision 2030, the Kingdom is still hoping to be the dog head for the oil production in decades.
The EIA, in its forecast annual energy 2020, has predicted that the world production of crude oil and condensate, rental, liquid natural gas plants, natural gas and dry coal in the United States would reach 90,29 billion BTU in its reference scenario. For the crude oil and condensate lease, the EIA predicts that the United States will be on par with the current situation, in its reference scenario. For the production of liquid natural gas plants, the EIA foresees an increase by 2050.
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2020
The reason for which the EIA assumes that oil production will stabilize in 2022 and keeps up quite well until 2045 is the projected decline in the productivity of the wells, forcing the oil producers demanding to hunt for oil in areas that are less prolific.
For saudi Arabia, its plan or its capabilities in terms of hydrocarbons on 30 years of age are more unknown. It has the second-largest crude oil reserves in the world, and it plans to increase its production of natural gas in the coming years as it seeks to move away from its dependence on quasi-complete with respect to the crude oil.
As regards natural gas, saudi Arabia announced earlier this year that it could actually present his plans to export natural gas by 2030. However, it did not provide details on this plan or how it would be implemented.
But his plans without details could encounter problems. To begin with, while saudi Arabia has excess reserves of gas associated with low-cost that it could exploit, the production of this gas would be limited to the amount of crude it can produce. And production of crude oil is periodically – and deeply at the current time – limited by agreements of the OPEC who control the ambitions of the Kingdom in the field of fossil fuels.
But the EIA sees OPEC countries fight countries non-OPEC on the production front by 2050
By 2050, the EIA expects the production of crude oil, lease condensate and natural gas plant
liquids (NGPL) and other liquid fuels from 2018 to 2050 up to 121.5 million barrels per day (b / d) by the year 2050, approximately 21% higher than the levels of 2018.
For the crude oil and condensate lease, the EIA sees OPEC members to increase production to 9.5 million bpd, and non-OPEC increase their production of crude oil and lease condensate of 8 million bpd. This translates to a 27% increase for the OPEC countries and 17% for non-OPEC, according to the energy Outlook annual international of the EIA.
Overall, the EIA expects that OPEC countries will generate 56% of the total world production in 2050.
The major part of this increase in production that OPEC countries (27%) will come from the Middle East, which is expected to increase by 35% until 2050.
At the same time, production in Russia (14%) and Canada (123%) is expected to increase more rapidly than in the United States (8%) and Brazil (50%).
Using the production figures historical courtesy of BP and the forecasts published by peakoilbarrel, the four major oil producers will remain in their positions until 2050.
Take line saudi
The swelling of the breast of the prince Abdulaziz appears to be consistent with prior statements of saudi Arabia that the oil will be alive and well in 2050 despite the attempts to stimulate the world along the energy transition. Even in 2007, Aramco has stated that it could increase the reserve to 1 billion barrels by 2027, adding that it would be 2050 or later before production peaks.
But some of the forecasts of the saudi Arabia on the future of fossil fuels were more sober, even seeing a phaseout of fossil fuels by the middle of this century, said Ali al-Naimi, Oil minister of saudi arabia at the time was in 2015.
“In saudi Arabia, we recognize that in the end, one of these days, we no longer need fossil fuels. I do not know when, in 2040, 2050 or after, “said al-Naimi, adding that saudi Arabia was considering of becoming a” world power in solar and wind energy “.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
More readings from Oilprice.com: