Coronavirus: UK must prepare for second wave now or risk 120,000 deaths this winter, warns major report | Political News


Coronavirus infections could develop “out of control” in the UK with a second peak leading to 120,000 deaths in a “worst case scenario”, the ministers were warned.

The forecasts count the number of people who could die in hospitals before next June and come from a report commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, published by the Academy of Medical Sciences.

He suggests that a second peak could be more serious than the first, with the rate R – the average number of people with whom COVID-19[feminine[feminine transmits the virus to – increasing to 1.7 from September.

The current R number in the UK is 0.7-0.9.

Report warns of up to 120,000 deaths

An increase in the number of Rs would likely see the United Kingdom lock out, as the ministers warned that they would reimpose emergency measures if the R rate rose above one.

The 37 scientists and academics behind the report said the peak in hospital admissions and deaths could occur in January and February 2021.

Sir Patrick Vallance ordered the report

Their startling research does not include deaths in the community or nursing homes – nor does it take into account additional government intervention.

Professor Azra Ghani, infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London who worked on the report, told Sky News that the results are “not a prediction” but a “worse case scenario” that could see coronavirus epidemic grow “out of control”.

“As we enter winter, the weather gets worse, people stay inside, the windows are not open, so the likelihood of transmission increases of course,” she said.

“We also have all kinds of other pressures on the NHS that increase during the winter and therefore additional hospital admissions.

“It is all these coupled things that could cause this worst scenario. We need the systems to be operational by September. “

Professor Azra Ghani, infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London
Professor Ghani said results are not a prediction of what will happen

Professor Stephen Holgate, clinical professor of immunopharmacology at the Medical Research Council, who led the study, suggested that the risk of the country being so badly affected “could be reduced if we act now.”

He called for influenza vaccination for vulnerable people and health and social service workers, and for the extension of the “screening and testing” program to ensure a “rapid surveillance system” to stop epidemics local.

Richard Vautrey, a general practitioner who chairs the British Medical Association’s general practitioner committee, said NHS staff are “very tired” after working “extremely hard” to fight the pandemic, but are preparing for a winter which could be “extremely difficult to manage”. “.

He urged politicians to obtain the “necessary funding in place”, to ensure that there are sufficient stocks of personal protective equipment (PPE) and to strengthen the testing and tracing system.

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A government spokesperson said the report “was the worst-case scenario based on no government action and said it was not a prediction.”

They added: “Thanks to the collective efforts of the nation, the virus is under control.

“However, we remain vigilant and the government will ensure that the necessary resources are in place to avoid a second peak that would overwhelm our NHS.

LONDON - OCTOBER 21: A patient is vaccinated against swine flu at University College London Hospital as the mass vaccination program begins today October 21, 2009 in London, England.  The program, providing more than 11 million people with the vaccine, began with the vaccination of frontline health workers by hospitals and their patients who fall into at risk categories.  (Photo by Lewis Whyld - WPA Pool / Getty Images)
Health Secretary said winter could see “largest flu vaccine program in history”

Work warned in response that a second spike in coronavirus cases could be “catastrophic”.

Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth called on health and social services sectors to “receive funding to prepare for winter in tandem with mass deployment of flu vaccine , including those over 50 and the most vulnerable, to help keep everyone as good as possible. ”

Health Secretary Matt Hancock insisted that he had bought enough flu vaccine to deploy the “largest flu vaccination program in history.”

And the government has announced that it is following the example of around 120 other countries, including Scotland, by making masks in stores in England compulsory from Friday 24 July.

The “worst unfavorable planning scenario” agreed by the government advisory group SAGE found on March 29 that an initial peak could kill up to 50,000 people.

So far, the government says that 44,830 people have died in all walks of life, including hospitals, nursing homes and the wider community.

But the latest release from the Office for National Statistics said the figure is actually 50,219 only in England and Wales until June 26 (and registered July 4).


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