The FT survey is based on data from Real Clear Politics. We calculate survey averages for Biden and Trump, in each state, using an exponential decay formula, which gives more weight to recent polls. We then use these averages to determine whether a state is ” strong “, ” supported “, or a ” toss-up “. The states where the difference between the two candidates is more than 10 percentage points are classified as ” strong “, while those with a difference of less than 5 percentage points are classified as “draw” of the states. If a state is not one of the offices of data, or if its latest poll of more than 60 days, we use the Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings to rank them. We consider Cook’s “likely” and “lean” states “supported” in our classification.Most states, a “winner-takes-all” method of allocating electoral college votes: the winner of the state popular vote receives all its electoral votes. In Maine and Nebraska, however, the winner in each congressional district receives one vote election, and the statewide winner is awarded two electoral votes.
The surveys collected by