US coronavirus: The Model projects of 200,000 people could die by October. Why this number may be low


Arizona and Texas on Tuesday reported a daily record number of new COVID-19 cases.

Florida had the highest number on Monday in the state yet to see new confirmed cases in a single day, after three record days last weekend.

Eight states, including Florida, Oklahoma and Louisiana, have seen coronavirus push numbers more than 50% in the past seven days compared to the previous week, according to CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University data .

The other five are from South Carolina, Alabama, Wyoming and Montana.

The way states are trending

  • 18 states are seeing upward trends in recently reported cases from week to week: California, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alaska and Hawaii.
  • 10 states see constant number of new cases reported: Washington, Utah, South Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio, West Virginia, Maine and Rhode Island.
  • 22 states are witnessing a downward trend: Idaho, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, North Dakota, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky , Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Delaware.
  • One state in Michigan has experienced a decrease of at least 50%.

Projections of death raised

A mix of early reopenings and disregard for personal safety measures prompted researchers to increase their projections of Covid-19 deaths this summer.

A model cited by the White House now predicts 200,000 coronavirus deaths on October 1, an increase of 30,000 since last week’s projection by the Institute for Health Metrology and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

What would mean an average daily death toll of more than 840 Americans since February 6, the date of the first known death linked to Covid-19.

“The increased mobility and premature relaxation of social distance has led to more infections, and we see it in Florida, Arizona and other states,” said Ali Mokdad, one of the creators of the model.

“It means more projected from the dead. ”

But IHME projections have been low in the past, and others say the death toll could be higher.

“Unfortunately, I think the 200,000 number may be an under prediction based on what we are starting to see in several states across the country,” CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said.

More than 2 million Americans have been infected with the virus, and more than 116,125 have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Why doctors are worried

“What we see from a video, especially from the states where we see these cases rising, is that the states are not opening smoothly. They’re opening, with a lot of crowds, “said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the infectious disease division at Massachusetts General Hospital.

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“They’re opening with a lack of masks … And when that happens, you don’t need too many infections for the cases to climb. ”

This is because without social distancing this coronavirus can be twice as contagious as the flu. It is easy to infect other people, even if there are no symptoms. And it has a long incubation time, which means those who eventually get sick can be contagious for days without knowing it.

Yes, the test is in place. But hospitalizations

Fauci: States should rethink reopenings if increased hospitalizations

Some governors have blamed their rise in Covid-19 cases for increased screening tests.

It is true that the screening test has improved, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

But “when you start to see more hospitalizations, it’s a sure sign that you’re in the wrong direction,” Fauci said.

Monday in Texas reported a new record of 2,326 hospitalizations due to coronavirus. And last week, as many as 12 members saw higher rates of Covid-19 hospitalizations.

Some places reconsider plans to reopen

Texas capital Austin has extended stay-at-home orders until August 15, the Mayor of Steve Adler announced Monday, citing a spike in the new coronavirus case.

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North Carolina’s next steps are not yet clear. Govt. Roy Cooper told reporters on Monday that he will announce early next week whether the state will still be in state three of the reopening later this month.

The rate of new cases in New Jersey is trending downward, but Gouv. Phil Murphy has said he wants the state to be cautious.

“We are not just going to throw out our doors all at once, like other members have done,” Murphy said. “We have already paid a huge, huge, almost unfathomable price. ”

Arkansas, on the other hand, still plans to move into phase two of its reopening despite its daily newspaper recording the largest increase in the number of new cases on Friday – 731 new cases.

“I hope we don’t repeat it” that, Gouv. Asa Hutchinson said.

But “we can’t have life waiting six months to a year until there is a vaccination … We have to be able to carry on life and business. “

Scientists learn more about the virus

Even though this coronavirus has killed more than 430,000 people worldwide, it is still relatively new.

The National Institutes of Health has launched a database to collect medical information on US coronavirus patients to learn more about the virus.

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“This effort aims to transform clinical information into urgently needed knowledge for the COVID-19 study, including risk factors that indicate the best or the worst outcome of the disease and possibly identify effective treatments , “The NIH says.

The Red Cross has announced that it will begin testing all donations of blood, plasma and platelets for the coronavirus antibody to help educate donors about whether they have ever been exposed to the virus.

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The test, which has been authorized by the Food and Drug Administration, indicates whether a person’s immune system has produced antibodies to fight the virus.

And a condition called Multi-Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) may be a late response to a coronavirus infection, according to a New York team from the Northwell Health System of Health.

“We were quite shocked that it was from reading,” Dr. Charles Schleien said. “The whole syndrome came out of the blue. We had been comfortable for months (in the belief) that children were not affected every month by the coronavirus. “

CNN Andrea Kane, Naomi Thomas, Janine Mack, Sharif Paget, Raja Razek, Maggie Fox, Shelby Lin s. erdman, Amanda Watts and Hollie Silverman contributed to this report.


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