UFC 250 Update of odds, predictions and betting projections: Breakdown of the 12 games on Saturday’s card

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UFC 250 kicks off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN + on Saturday with a preliminary card of seven fights. The main card starts at 10 p.m. AND on ESPN + PPV, with five fights, including the fight for the women’s Featherweight title between Amanda Nunes and Felicia Spencer. In addition to moneylines and over / under, there are many other ways to bet on an MMA fight – including the exact winning methods, the props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision.

As a result, after considering all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of usable value.

Check out the full betting odds, with Sean Zerillo’s analysis, and the choices for each fight below:


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UFC 250 Dimensions and projections

Advance preliminary card

  • Time: 6 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN / ESPN +

Featherweight fight: Evan Dunham against Herbert Burns

Chances
Dunham odds +180
Burns odds -230
More less 2.5 (+ 110 / -148)

Participatory screening: Herbert Burns (78%)

If you saw Gilbert Burns defeating Tyron Woodley in the main tournament last Saturday, you might be interested in his brother Herbert (10-2) who is on a four-game winning streak – including this vicious knockout with a knee-length body body debuting at the UFC in January:

This cut-off power could cause problems for 38-year-old veteran Evan Dunham, who was arrested in each of his last two fights in 2018 before taking nearly two years off.

Left-handed Dunham is the more technical striker than Burns – with a significant hitting differential of +1.81 in the UFC – and he can land at high volume (5.35 per minute) while defending two strikes (61%) and withdrawal attempts (80%).

If Burns brings Dunham to the ground, the fight could end in a hurry; the Brazilian registered six first round bids, and Burns per bid (+215) and Burns Round 1 (+220) are the respective favorites in their aftermarket betting markets.

Bet on 2.5 rounds (+110), play the fight to go the distance (+129) or support Dunham by decision (+325) are each intriguing bets, in addition to taking the underdog on the line silver.

And even if I would look at the underdog in this fight, I can’t bet on the 38-year-old Dunham coming out of the long layoff.

Crowd projection places Burns at 78% probability (implied odds of -355) of winning this fight, which means they see more than 8% of the line value on the favorite compared to current odds at -230 (69.7% implicit). Use our betting calculator to find your advantage if you have different odds.

Paris Dunham versus Burns


Light and heavy fight: Alonzo Menifield against Devin Clark

Chances
Menifield odds -235
Clark odds +183
More less 1.5 (+ 105 / -139)

Participatory screening: Alonzo Menifield (90%)

Undefeated, Alonzo Menifield has won seven of his nine career bouts in the first round, including his three UFC victories. No one has been successful against him at any level, which means that the Light Heavyweight still has a lot of questions to answer regarding his full skill set.

Menifield takes a tough test on Saturday at Devin Clark, who can dictate the pace of the fight and slow the mighty favorite to a lull in his fight, allowing “Brown Bear” to make more than three eliminations in 15 minutes. UFC. .

Clark is no slouch either, with a decisive hitting differential (+0.67) and a 7-0 record on the scoreboards, a reflection of his ability to beat the points. Therefore, Clark by decision (+350) is a pretty attractive bet, with bets on 1.5 rounds (+105) or play combat to go the distance (+198).

Menifield by KO, TKO or DQ (-143) is the most popular game, but I’m going to try a stab at the underdog, which was wagered on an opening line +270, to win points – and to go against the projection of the crowd which, I think, seriously underestimates Clark’s real chances.

Menifield vs Clark Bets

  • Devin Clark by decision +350 (0.5 units)
  • Clark / Menifield, more than 1.5 rounds (+105, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Fly control: Jussier Formiga against Alex Perez

Chances
Formiga odds +111
Perez odds -137
More less 2.5 (-230 / + 166)

Participatory screening: Jussier Formiga (64%)

The crowd loves veteran Formiga as an outsider in this Flyweight fight, but they are two fighters going in different directions, and I do not agree with their selection for the third consecutive fight to start the map. UFC 250.

28-year-old Perez has won 10 of his last 11 fights – including six out of seven at the UFC, while the 35-year-old Formiga could be at the end of his career, embarking on this fight after several years consecutive. lost for the first time, having suffered a knockout defeat last June and appearing to be less explosive, while chasing a nine-game when trying to withdraw, in their March loss to Brandon Moreno.

Formiga is the best technician, but Perez strikes at a significantly higher volume (4.48 to 1.35 significant strokes per minute) and a margin (+1.49 to -0.88) with better precision (47% to 39%) also.

If Formiga can win battles, it should win the fight – and it has had great success against fighters similar to Perez in the past.

This fight is -205 to go the distance, and Perez by decision (+175) is the obvious choice if Formiga is in decline. He is 12-1 on the scoreboards in his career, while Formiga is 13-4 when the fight goes to the judges.

Formiga by submission (+555) has minor appeal if you like the underdog, but it’s not the way I lean in a fight that I will ultimately ignore for betting purposes.

Perez took the majority of the money, going from +110 at the opening to more than -140 currently on the market.

Paris Formiga vs. Perez


Preliminary map

  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN / ESPN +

Middleweight fight: Charles Byrd against Maki Pitolo

Chances
Byrd odds -180
Pitolo odds +143
More less 1.5 (-159 / + 119)

Participatory screening: Charles Byrd (69%)

If you enjoy watching Hawaii born athletes, Maki Pitolo, aka “Coconut Bombz” should definitely catch your eye as a high octane puncher in the UFC middleweight division.

Pitolo moves up to welterweight after his first UFC defeat at Callan Potter, where he was outclassed in all facets by a smaller fighter. If Byrd can stick to a game plan similar to Potter’s and avoid being drawn into a boxing match, he should finally win; with a decision victory (+250) or a submission victory (+300) appearing at the top of the betting choices.

Byrd has been eliminated in each of his last two fights, however, and despite the 15-month layoff, Pitolo is precisely the type of fighter who will test a questionable chin; but his odds in the first round (+550) are not attractive enough to bet.

That being said, I think Byrd is on the bright side, and tend to agree with the projection of the crowd; but there is not enough bet value on the favorite to make a game at odds of -177 (64.9% implied) – a difference of 5% from crowd projection.

Paris Byrd against Pitolo


Featherweight fight: Cody Stamann against Brian Kelleher

Chances
Stamann odds -275
Kelleher odds +210
More less 2.5 (-240 / + 174)

Participatory screening: Cody Stamann (77%)

Kelleher upset the undefeated Hunter Azure on May 13 as an outsider +170 after knocking out another top prospect, Ode Osbourne, as an outsider +120 in January.

Kelleher drew Azure, a strong wrestler, into a striking battle, and ultimately triumphed with a highlight reel knockout:

But I don’t expect the most seasoned Stamann to be as stubborn while averaging three eliminations per UFC bout and 3.58 per 15 minutes with 48% deletion accuracy.

It also has the positive hitting differential (+1.19 to -1.36) between the two fighters, although as we saw in Azure combat, it doesn’t matter given the power KO of Kelleher.

Stamann opened as a favorite -180 (implied 64.3%) for this fight and was bet almost 10% in terms of line value at -286 (implied 74.1%)

This fight is -225 to go the distance, the most likely fight of the night to reach the scoreboards, and Stamann is a -139 favorite to win by decision, which would be my only skinny.

But the crowd projection (77%) is otherwise comparable to its odds of -286 (74.1% implied), and I’m going to sit down and enjoy what could be the fight of the night.

Paris Stamann vs. Kelleher


Middleweight fight: Ian Heinisch versus Gerald Meerschaert

Chances
Heinisch odds -130
Meerschaert odds +105
More less 2.5 (-200 / + 150)

Participatory screening: Ian Heinisch (57%)

Again, the crowd projection for the favorite (57%) is a few percentage points from the odds listed at -125 (implicit 55.6%), in a likely fight, at -162, to reach the tables of edge.

Heinisch by decision (+150) is the best selection for the winning method, Meerscharet by decision (+300) narrowly ahead of its bid odds (+350) for second choice after Meerscharet recorded its 22nd career bid victory in March.

He has a range advantage of five inches and a height advantage of two inches over the favorite, and I suspect he will completely dominate wrestling battles.

Meerscharet is struggling to get easy removal (2.37 per 15 minutes, 43% accuracy at UFC). Still, you have to respect the fact that it offers multiple paths to victory while offering a foolproof chin against the mighty power of Heinisch.

I will continue to bet this fight, but it could be a swing fight for DFS purposes, and I will likely include Meerscharet and his dangerous submission skills in some of my queues.

Paris Heinisch versus Meerschaert


Featherweight fight: Alex Caceres against Chase Hooper

Chances
Caceres odds +152
Hooper odds -190
More less 2.5 (+ 115 / -155)

Participatory screening: Chase Hooper (84%)

If you want a deeper analysis of the Hooper-Caceres fight, check out my full overview of the fight.

Undefeated 20-year-old Hooper, opened at -110, was bet close to -200 for his second fight at the UFC, in terms of size and stylistic offset with Alex Caceres.

Hooper is still incredibly green as a prospect, and he has a lot of work to do on his stand-up game, especially on defense. However, Caceres has very little power to prevent him from coming straight ahead.

Hooper is awkwardly tall for a featherweight, and once he takes you with his long limbs, it’s hard to get out of his grip. In the 25-foot cage, Caceres has even less room to try to maneuver.

I bet Hooper on the money line because his chances of winning by knockout, tender or DQ (+105) do not attract me – even if I expect him to win inside the distance.

In addition to betting on his money line, I will also use Hooper to start a small bet with the two most important favorites on the card.

Paris Caceres vs. Hooper

  • Chase Hooper -190 (1 unit)
  • Parlay: Chase Hooper / Sean O’Malley / Amanda Nunes (+112, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Main card

  • Time: 10 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN PPV

Bantamweight Fight: Eddie Wineland vs. Sean O’Malley

Chances
Wineland odds +360
O’Malley odds -500
More less 1.5 (-139 / + 105)

Participatory screening: Sean O’Malley (91%)

Undefeated Bantamweight, 25-year-old Sean O’Malley is both a current and future star in the sport, and his return to the octagon at UFC 248 was a welcome sight:

He is incredibly technical and lands at a high volume (6.87 significant strikes per 15 minutes) with incredible precision (57%) and defense (66%) at the other end of the trade.

O’Malley is the best athlete, with a height advantage of four inches and a range advantage of three inches on Wineland, in addition to being 10 years younger and much faster.

This fight should mostly stay on its feet, which makes O’Malley by KO / TKO so attractive.

Crowd projects O’Malley as 91% favorite, with 70% of these predictions calling for a knockout / TKO victory, suggesting that the good odds for their knockout prop should be -175 (implied 63.7 %).

Even at its current rating of -500 (83.3% implied), multiplied by this 70% probability of knockout, you get a rating of -139 (58.1%), which means that O’Malley by knockout, TKO or DQ can be activated at – 121.

I will also use O’Malley as a parlay room.

Choice: O’Malley KO / TKO / DQ (-121, 0.5u)

Get +124 odds with 50% DK boost

Welterweight fight: Neil Magny against Anthony Rocco Martin

Chances
Magny’s ratings -136
Martin odds +108
More less 2.5 (-250 / + 180)

Participatory screening: Neil Magny (81%)

Magny has a significant size advantage against Martin in this fight – 3 inches tall and 7 inches range – which should allow him to stick his jab several times before making his way inside with his solid grappling, where it works best outside of clinch.

He also fights at a higher volume than his opponent, obtaining 1.23 additional significant strikes per minute, with differential measurements (+1.78 to +0.25) and precision (46% to 36%) significantly better.

Magny used his grappling very well in his last fight, dominating a powerful puncher at Li Jingliang and proving that he can take a photo as an outsider +130, after betting +210.

Martin prefers to fight from a distance, and he doesn’t have nearly the same power as Li to threaten Magny from a standpoint – but he has steadily improved his entire game and shouldn’t be dismissed.

He will have to use his kicks effectively to unbalance Magny and make him hesitate to come forward.

In the end, I like Magny’s appearance in his last fight – using his incredibly long limbs to control the range and pace of the fight – and he comes from an incredibly hot camp in the Elevation Fight Team – which includes Justin Gaethje, Alistair Overeem, Drew Dober, and a future bantamweight champion you will see in the next fight, Cory Sandhagen.

Choice: Magny to win (-136, 1u)

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Bantamweight fight: Aljamain Sterling against Cory Sandhagen

Chances
Sterling odds -112
Sandhagen odds -112
More less 2.5 (-250 / + 180)

Participatory projection: Aljamain Sterling (53%)

Behind Stamann against Kelleher and Magny against Martin, the clash between Sterling and Sandhagen, which is essentially a # 1 fight for a Bantam title, is the third most likely to go the distance on Saturday at odds of – 215.

In my opinion, this might as well be the bantamweight title fight, as I think the winner ultimately beats the acting champion, to be decided between Jose and Petr Yan – and it’s a shame we won’t get five rounds of Sterling against Sandhagen; although we may someday with a belt on the line.

Sterling is an incredible wrestler and grappler, who is extremely difficult to hit. Yet his strike has improved considerably in recent years, and he is among the most complete MMA fighters on the planet.

Sandhagen is the most active and powerful attacker; however, using its switch position to confuse opponents from multiple angles with the hands, legs, knees and elbows. He’s also an intrepid and extremely tough wrestler – so he won’t be afraid to go all-in with Sterling, and has been shot in all of his five UFC fights.

I expect Sterling’s higher IQ and combat experience will end up proving too much for Sandhagen. The two men have similar strike parameters, but Sandhagen’s opponents are eight to 11 in the withdrawal attempts in his five UFC fights, and the best wrestler should be able to dominate from first position for much of this fight. – after using the smaller octagon to work Sandhagen against the fence.

81% of the crowd who chose Sterling chose it to win by decision. If you multiply this 81% by its combat rating (implicit 54%), you get an expected rating of +129 (implied 43.7%).

Therefore, betting Sterling to win by decision (+175) offers at least 7% of the value of the line, and it is the only way to play this fight.

Choice: Sterling by decision (+175, 0.5u)

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Bantamweight fight: Raphael Assuncao against Cody Garbrandt

Chances
Assuncao odds +120
Garbrandt odds -148
More less 2.5 (-125 / -106)

Participatory screening: Cody Garbrandt (65%)

Former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt returns to the octagon after a 15-month hiatus after suffering his third knockout loss in 18 months as a -200 favorite against Pedro Munhoz.

After defeating Dominick Cruz in his first title fight to move to 11-0 in December 2016, Garbrandt was at the top of the world and looked like a potentially transcendent MMA superstar; it’s amazing how quickly the story can change.

Garbrandt is an incredibly technical striker and solid defensive wrestler who has never been shot in his UFC career. He has a considerable advantage in terms of power and speed over Assuncao, who has appeared to be in decline in his last two fights, and I’m not sure what the Brazilian left at the age of 37.

The only question for Garbrandt is his chin – and whether he has healed after his substantial break from fighting. Apparently, the public expects Garbrandt to be arrested with Assucano listed at +400 by KO or TKO, and +1000 by decision.

However, he has only had four career knockouts and one since 2012. If Garbrandt falls asleep from Assuncao’s power, he might as well retire.

A bet on Garbrandt is a bet on a fighter who hasn’t won in four years – but the match and the prize seem good.

Garbrandt by KO / TKO (+125) is the favorite in the winning method, but I prefer Garbrandt by decision (+250) – because Assuncao was only arrested once in his career – in 2011.

More than 2.5 rounds (-125) are worth considering, but I’m just going to support Garbrandt on the money line and watch the fireworks:

Choice: Garbrandt will win (-148, 1u)

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Women’s featherweight fight: Amanda Nunes against Felicia Spencer

Chances
Nunes odds -625
Spencer odds +450
More less 1.5 (-200 / + 150)

Participatory screening: Amanda Nunes (89%)

If you want a more in-depth analysis of the main event, check out my full overview of the fight.

In short, Felicia Spencer showed great tenacity and determination in her fight with Cris Cyborg, continuing to step forward and press the classier fighter for three rounds while taking a beating.

While Nunes has a lot more power than Cyborg and represents a more rigorous test in a five-round fight, I have to go against the tide and watch Nunes by decision (+300).

We saw a higher percentage of saves last Saturday in the smaller 25-foot cage than we would typically see in the 30-foot octagon – and Nunes will no doubt be able to take big hits during the fight .

But if Spencer can survive the first round, there’s a good chance this fight will reach the scoreboards – as Nunes has shown a tendency to run out of steam after winning the first rounds before fighting with his opponent until that time is up.

Although I don’t want to put significant juice (-200) on more than 1.5 rounds, Nunes per decision (+300) is the most attractive bet in the table.

I will also use Nunes as a parlay room.

Paris Nunes vs. Spencer

  • Amanda Nunes by decision +300 (1 unit)

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Paris UFC Fight Night by Zerillo

  • Devin Clark by decision +350 (0.5 units)
  • Clark / Menifield, more than 1.5 rounds (+105, 0.5 units)
  • Chase Hooper -190 (1 unit)
  • Sean O’Malley by KO / TKO / DQ (-121, 0.5 units)
  • Neil Magny -136 (1 unit)
  • Aljamain Sterling by decision +175 (0.5 units)
  • Cody Garbrandt -148 (1 unit)
  • Amanda Nunes by decision +300 (1 unit)
  • Parlay: Chase Hooper / Sean O’Malley / Amanda Nunes (+114, 0.5 units)

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