But some survey institutes, in particular, relatively few in number, conduct of surveys in the battleground states, are still struggling with the same issues that plagued these polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, the state, the polls are exaggerating the scale of Biden is gone.
This is precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls have been largely accurate, within the margin of error. But there were too few of the state surveys, and many of those that have been conducted have failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.
And these issues have not been resolved.
“I would say that most, if not all, of the concerns that we have expressed still hold — some to a lesser degree,” said Courtney Kennedy, director of research at the Pew Research Center, and lead author of the interrogation of the industry of the post-2016 post-mortem. “But I think that some fundamental, structural challenges that came to a head in 2016, are still in place in 2020.”
Polling errors are not uncommon in presidential elections. But pollsters see a real risk of this year, as the same 2016 mistakes will be repeated. Their colleagues are still not taking into account the fact that voters with a higher level of education are more likely to fill in surveys and more likely to vote for democratic candidates.
“There are still a number of surveys, in particular, that are not of the resolution of this problem,” said Kennedy.
Biden’s current lead over Trump is so large-more than 8 points in the national RealClearPolitics polling average, and an average advantage of 3 points or more in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as of 2016 at the level of polling error would not matter. An advance that large would probably guarantee Trump would be denied a second term, and even a polling miss comparable to 2016 would not be enough to overcome it.
But this does not mean that the president is quite as bleak as it seems, on paper, the same problem that pollsters identified in 2016 remains. Not enough surveys are being conducted in the battleground states, and those that exist do not account for a key political dynamic of modern politics, especially in the Trump era: the rapid movement of low-income white voters for Republicans and top of the range white for the Democrats.
Investigators are looking for answers. One of the the main takeaway of the American Association for Public Opinion Research of the post-2016 post mortem examination was that of the state polls that do not have weight, or adjust, of their samples to include more white voters who had not graduated college missed a key element of the Asset of the coalition. In the previous elections, differences in white voters ‘ preferences, along the education lines were smaller, but has started to grow last decade, and accelerated with Trump on the ballot in 2016.
“Before 2014, this is not that big of a deal because the reality is non-college white voters and college-educated white voters, the distinction between the two was not as dramatic,” said Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock. “But from 2014, that has started to attach a lot and is now of course enormous.”
GOP pollster Glen Bolger said he believes a combination of the sounders ‘ inability to obtain the right education mix, and to convince potential Trump voters to react and respond truthfully to telephone surveys is pointing to their investigations in a slight Democratic direction.
“I don’t know what the size of the effect. Also, I don’t know what is the ratio between the be “shy Trump’ voters and interviewed too many college graduates and not enough non-graduates,” Bolger said. “But I think those are factors in some of the polls that show a large lead for Biden at this point in time. And I don’t think things will be a little more in the states than the polls indicate now.”
The offices of precision came to the head last week, after CNN published a national investigation showing Biden with 14 points ahead of Trump, among registered voters, 55 percent to 41 percent. The Advantage of the campaign immediately went on the attack against a common enemy: the First, Trump himself tweeted out an internal campaign memorandum prepared by John McLaughlin, one of his campaign pollsters — the call of the CNN investigation “unbalanced” against the president.
Then, Trump campaign sent to CNN a letter, demanding that the network cable to retract the results of the investigation and apologize. CNN took their survey, which generally follows best practices, and weight through education. The outcome of the episode was a contentious interview of Trump’s campaign attorney Jenna Ellis on CNN’s “Reliable Sources” that descended into shouting. (The Trumpet of the campaign has also demanded an apology from CNN host Brian stelter ph.d the conduct of the interview.)
While the CNN survey shows a larger lead for Biden than the other, they all show the presumptive Democratic candidate with a significant advantage. Trump has not conducted a national poll in the RCP database, since the month of February, and a The Washington Post analysis found that pollsters who have conducted multiple surveys this year have consistently showed Biden the obtaining and the Trumpet of falling in their most recent surveys.
The biggest problem seems to be in the state polls, as evidenced by CNN polling standards. The network polling standards the state not to report on the election of the investigations that “do not ensure that respondents of all levels of education are adequately taken into account.”
Pollock, the Democratic pollster and the president of the Overall Strategy of the Group, describes making a “significant investment” in the update to its own office of education models. “And that in itself is like a seismic change. Because every time you have a variable like this that is so critical, if you get an error, then the whole poll is wrong,” he said.
At last week’s annual AAPOR convention — held online due to the sars coronavirus pandemic of Nate Cohn, the New York Times data journalist who has worked with Siena College on multi-million dollar question of partnership, observed that the state polls are bent a little too far toward the Democrats in 2014 and 2016. In 2018, he said, the polls have been more accurate, but still showed a Democratic slant, especially “in a number of white, working class of the united states,” like Indiana and Ohio.
And, Cohn noted in his presentation, it could happen again this year.
“Up to now, in 2020, it seems like Joe Biden, is doing particularly well in the countries where the surveys were to be more oriented towards Hillary Clinton four years ago,” Cohn said the virtual participants.
As if on cue, a new survey has been published in Michigan, Tuesday: it showed Biden ahead by a whopping 16 points.