While the “Struggle Island” looming on the horizon, the UFC, APEX still has a lot of mixed martial arts (MMA) steps to offer. This Saturday night (June 20, 2020) of the event on ESPN will see Curtis Blaydes take on Alexander Volkov in a heavyweight heavyweight clash, while Josh Emmett will cross paths with Shane Burgos in what could easily be the “Fight of the Year ”weight Firework feather.
Also on tap are Raquel Pennington vs Marion Reneau and Belal Muhammad vs Lyman Bon.
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What happened during the UFC on ESPN 10?
Anthony Ivy was … more than a little disappointing, but everyone made great. However, I am kicking myself for not following through on my “oh God, I’m in the red I need to fix this RIGHT NOW” plan to literally put it all of the remaining balance on Cynthia Calvillo . Oh, well, live and learn.
Bobby Green (-245) vs Clay Guida (+205)
Brianna Van Buren (-190) vs Tecia Torres (+165)
Oskar Piechota (-125) vs Marc-André Barriault (+105)
Gillian Robertson (-120) vs Cortney Casey (SAME)
Matt Frevola (-125) vs Frank Camacho (+105)
Roxanne Modafferi (-120) vs Lauren Murphy (SAME)
Max Rohskopf (-185) vs Austin Hubbard (+160)
Thoughts: The pick-ems look like the most fertile ground this week. I like the line on Gillian Robertson and there is value in both Matt Frevola and Lauren Murphy.
Cortney Casey has been taken down at least once in seven of his last eight fights, resulting in a deeply disappointing, 39% rate defense. It’s more than a slight problem against Robertson, who not only averages nearly 3.5 knockouts per 15 minutes, but it’s a nightmare to manage on the field. “The Savage” does get tapped on guard by Mayra Bueno Silva and Casey has a couple of nice armbars to his credit, but the fighting style of Robertson favors in a big way.
Frank Camacho is tons of fun to watch, but it is much less than the sum of its parts. Good power, unhooking the jaw, striking volume, and a killer playing field must make for more successful Octagon than a controversial decision on Damien Brun and a TKO of Nick Hein, who insists on ignoring his judo by favor trying to box with some of the stubbiest arm division. This kind of underperformance consistency has me favoring Frevola, who has shown some quality of chop removal and a little bit of tenacity when not dealing with Polo Reyes’ mad of power. “La Steamrolla” should outwrestle Camacho for a comfortable victory.
I am a fan of Roxanne Modafferi; I’ve seen her treatise as a last word in the past, but she is a skilled grappler who has found success against strong opposition despite a lack of physique. That said, Murphy is not an easy woman to control on the mat and the numbers to be the most powerful of the striker of the two. Standup “The Happy of the Warrior” remains a weak link, one that, even someone as limited as “Chance” can exploit. At the very least, Murphy should be able to control the fight on the fence long enough to get the decision.
Shane Burgos (-130) vs Josh Emmett (+110)
Raquel Pennington (-165) vs Marion Reneau (+145)
Belal Muhammad (-120) vs Lyman Bonne (SAME)
Roosevelt Roberts (-225) vs Jim Miller (+185)
Thoughts: Like someone who’s slow to tab Roosevelt Roberts as a legitimate prospect, I like his rating here. Even though Jim Miller has had good performances lately, and is he treating Lyme disease that derailed his career, he is still 36 and has aged considerably. He visibly slowed down and struggled with physically stronger Scott Holtzmann the last time and the much larger Roberts poses a similar threat, notably with his guillotine killer stymieing Miller fight. Roberts’ defense withdrawal has failed in the past, especially with regard to Vinc Pichel and almost disastrous against Alexander Yakovlev, but he has enough physical advantages here to make him earn a play.
Curtis Blaydes seems worth a look as well. Alexander Volkov has never been a great defensive wrestler; he managed to survive Fabricio Werdum after descending three times, but Blaydes is much less likely to gas and much more likely to do major damage with ground-and-pound while on top. Use “Razor” to push a narrow line into the positive points.
The best bets for the UFC on ESPN 11:
Parlay-Gillian Robertson and Curtis Blaydes: $ 60 make $ 78
Parlay-Matt Frevola and Roosevelt Roberts: $ 50 make $ 80
Parlay-Lauren Murphy and Curtis Blaydes: $ 40 to make $ 75
There are a few confrontations here, like Emmett-Burgos and Muhammad-Bon, that you absolutely don’t want to miss. See you on Saturday, Manaics.
Initial Investment For 2020: $ 300
Total: $ 309.64
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE turn-by-turn, piecemeal, coverage of the entire UFC on ESPN 11 combat map HEREstarting with the ESPN /ESPN + “Preliminaries” which are scheduled to start at 5 am ET, while the main card leaves which will also be live on ESPN /ESPN + at 8 a.m.ET.
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