The “hot spots” persist, more young people receive COVID-19: new modeling

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OTTAWA, on –
A new modeling national pandemic COVID-19 in Canada shows that the “hot spots” remain in Ontario and Quebec, and the percentage of young people contracting the virus has increased in the last month. Federal health authorities predict that in the 12 July, the country could see between 103 940 and 108 130 cases, and between 8: 545 and 8 865 death.

To date, 103 818 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada, of which 64% are recovered, while there were 8,566 deaths.

The chief administrator of the public health, Dr. Theresa Tam, and the deputy chief public health, Dr. Howard Njoo, to present a portrait revised the current epidemic in Canada.

The latest figures of the federal indicate that the two main hot spots remain around Toronto and Montreal, but that the overall experience of Canada with the new coronavirus has been a case of epidemics in the region.

Health officials have reported that the daily number of hospitalised cases and icu also decreased regularly as the recoveries increased. The modeling also shows that, although there has been a sharp decrease in transmission among older age groups, there has been a relative increase of Canadians aged 20 to 39 years of age contracting the COVID-19 since the end of may.

Dr Tam said that for COVID-19 turns off in Canada, the number of reproduction effective (Rt) – the average number of people infected by each case – must remain less than a, and the rate of Rt in Canada has been less than one for eight weeks.

Tam also warned that epidemics have also been recently linked to social gatherings, especially in closed places with close contact such as funerals or other family gatherings. She advises people to limit the number of close contacts that they have and avoid confined spaces and crowded.

THE PM CALLS FOR VIGILANCE

Before the update, the Prime minister Justin Trudeau stated that in regard to the spread of the COVID-19, Canada is headed in the right direction, although the threat remains.

“The virus remains a very serious threat to our health,” said Trudeau on Monday, informing Canadians about the latest relief efforts in the event of a pandemic, which the federal government works, which includes the extension of a relief program commercial rent for another month.

“After a spring of very difficult, things continue to move in the right direction. We still have hot spots in certain parts of the country, but nationally, the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths decreases with time. And it is because Canadians are doing their part, ” said Trudeau. “While we are on the right track, the fight against COVID-19 is not yet complete. When we start to reopen some parts of the economy, we must continue to follow the directives of local public health we protect each other. ”

Trudeau has brought back with him all throughout his speech the need to keep track of measures such as the wearing of masks and the physical distance, or risk losing the progress made as seen in other countries, particularly the United States, where cases are reaching pandemic levels almost early, after the States have relaxed the restrictions.

“It’s going to be really, really important that everyone remains attentive and vigilant to his own behaviors, so that we can prevent a second wave arrive… as we begin to see in places around the world, but also, so that we can minimize any wave, if it hits, “said Trudeau.

Trudeau also said that as it is now summer, and the federal authorities of the health will make the transition of national addresses almost daily, to come to talk to Canadians “a few times a week… when we will have information sessions or information to share” and still publishes the latest figures on cases and deaths each day.

FOURTH UPDATE OF THE MODELING

The figures for Monday are the fourth update of the modeling federal offered by Health Canada.

This comes after Tam warned earlier this month that Canada could see an “explosive growth” in new cases if the reopening was not done with caution. The figures show that if the measures of prevention of the spread are inadequate, Canada could see another peak in October.

The national projections previous on the severity and the scope of COVID-19 before the update of Monday, showed that 82% of all deaths due to COVID-19 are linked to homes for the elderly, and that outbreaks in other areas of life and work together, are also at the origin of the number of cases , such as those of factories, meat-packing, shelters and correctional institutions. In addition, approximately 94% of the deaths occurred in persons over 60 years of age.

During the update of the modeling of the 28 April, Canada has seen for the first time, indicators that the curve COVID-19 aplatissait in Canada, and that the rate of spread of cases had stabilized in most of the provinces. At the time, the modeling also showed that, compared to other countries, the epidemic growth in Canada was slower.

The first series of screenings showed that the peak of cases in Canada may occur at the end of the spring, with the end of the first wave in the summer. On 9 April, it was estimated that between 4 000 and 300 000 people in Canada may die the COVID-19 during the pandemic depending on the level of efforts of containment. Although the health officials have estimated that, in the context of public health measures current, the realistic figure would be around 44 000 deaths COVID-19 in the months to come.

At the time, Trudeau stated that the small outbreaks continue to occur once the initial wave is completed, stating that certain precautions public health would be the new standard until a vaccine is developed.

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