The death of coronavirus are lagging behind the new pic of infections, but could catch up


This means that Arizona, Texas and Florida, which have reopened early and are now experiencing rates of infection, uncontrollable, should bury more of the dead in July.

“As long as there are a good number of tests in the course, if there is a slight increase in infections by Covid-19, then we will probably see this in the data of the case confirmed before you see it in the data of death,” said Nicholas G. Reich, associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, in an email.

He predicted ” an increase in deaths of Covid-19 in the course of the next month in many States that will see rate increases in cases, such as Texas, California, Florida, and other, even if the deaths were stable or declining in recent weeks.”

The virus is back in arrow these past few days, with 38173 infections in the United States on Wednesday, more than any previous day of the pandemic, including the tragic days of April. This time, the increases are mostly in the South and the West, while New York and New Jersey, which have been almost overwhelmed in the spring and have put in the time to reopen, see cases in decline.

California, which has closed early and has adopted an approach that was slow to reopen, however, reported more than 7 000 new cases Wednesday, easily surpassing his record of 5019 drawn on Tuesday. Oklahoma – where the president, Trump has held on Saturday a rally of campaign inner – and Florida have also reached new highs of the day Wednesday.

These three States, as well as Nevada and North Carolina, have reached new heights in their seven-day moving averages, seen as a more reliable indicator of the impact of the virus. Arizona has set a record with 2 270 hospitalizations.

Hospitalizations for coronavirus have tripled in Houston since Memorial Day, said Wednesday the general director of the methodist Hospital of Houston, Marc Boom. Texas has reported 5 551 new cases, the most in a single day, as well as 4 389 hospitalizations, an increase of almost 300 compared with the record on Tuesday.

The moving average on the seven days of the new cases in the State has increased 70% since last Tuesday, setting a record for the 14th consecutive day.

The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have stated that they would recommend it to travelers from States with large community spread of the virus is put in quarantine for 14 days, announced the three Wednesday at a joint press conference.

The new rules apply to people of the States with an infection rate of 10 per 100 000 population on a moving average of seven days, or a rate of a positive test result of 10% or more over a period of seven days, according to the governor of New York Andrew M. Cuomo (D). Nine States are currently part of this group: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas.

Despite the figures, the vice-president, Pence has urged the republican senators at a luncheon behind closed doors to focus on ” encouraging signs “. Lawmakers have started to be alarmed of the increase in infection rates in States such as Florida, Arizona and Texas, which are likely to be critical in the outcome of the presidential race and control of the Senate.

The senators have said that Pence has pointed to some positive indicators, including the mortality rate falling behind. This is explained in part by the fact that there are more tests and that those who are younger and in better health now represent a larger share of those tested, said Pence.

The responsible for the monitoring of the return scary Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, are somewhat supported by the lessons learnt and the progress of the health system since the virus has leapt to the ground near Seattle at the end of February and then flooded New York.

Some have said that the greater availability of the tests is responsible for the increase in the number of cases. The results of these tests reveal a greater number of younger people living with the virus than there were at the beginning of the epidemic.

When the pandemic hit the United States for the first time, it was almost impossible for anyone without severe symptoms to get a test. The young, which typically suffer from mild cases and are more likely to be asymptomatic, may therefore be under-represented, said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Now, they explain in part the increase in the total number of cases and a greater proportion of hospitalizations in places like Arizona. There may be fewer deaths in the younger group, but these individuals are likely to infect more older people, she said.

With the reopening of the States, “you have young people on the move. They broadcast “, she said. “It may take time to find its way to the elderly and vulnerable, who are more likely to die.”

Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that the elderly now have a better understanding of their vulnerability. The medical system has also taken steps to better protect people over the age of 65, including those living in nursing homes and other care facilities. The virus did not cross these places and kills dozens of people, as he did at the beginning of the pandemic.

The medical care for the most seriously ill patients also improved over the course of four months, during which caregivers americans have fought against the disease. The doctors have become more skilled at use of respirators and other tools and techniques to help patients breathe. They turned to drugs as the remdesivir, which has shown a small benefit for critically ill patients, and dexamethasone, a steroid, which reduces the risk of death for people suffering from pulmonary lesions severe. Sick people have learned to monitor the level of oxygen in their blood using pulse oximeters at home.

Even if the number of the dead do not return to previous levels, the current outbreak will have serious consequences, ” said Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist of infectious diseases who teaches at the University of Arizona. For some people who do not fall seriously ill, the virus can cause serious problems and sometimes lasting, she said.

“The disease is as a result really significant,” said Popescu. “The deaths are obviously the worst case; we do not want that people die. But I don’t want people to get sick, especially if sick they have to go to the hospital. It is hard for them, it is hard for the health system. Focus only on death does a disservice to patients and to the community. ”

Jacqueline Dupree and Erica Werner contributed to this report.


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