Experts say expanded diagnostic tests account for some, but not all, of the growth in business, and that the mounting volume of infections has already been rising hospitalizations.
“It is clear that the cases are increasing rapidly. It’s not just a matter of testing over, ”said Dr. Murtaza Akhter, an emergency room doctor at Arizona hospitals, noting the lag time between a positive test and serious illness or death. “The real concern is what is coming for us in the next week or two.”
He said the latest wave of cases has put Arizona’s hospitals near full capacity in Arizona and placed the southwestern state on track to overtake New York at its peak per capita.
Particularly alarming has been the upward trends in several states in the percentage of positive tests among people who are selected, a metric experts call the positivity rate.
The World Health Organization considers the positivity of rates above 5% to be particularly relevant, and looked at data from Johns Hopkins University showing 16 members with average rates over the past week, exceeding the level and climbing.
Four averaged double-digit rates from Arizona at 17%, Alabama at 12%, Washington state at 11% and South Carolina at 10%. The dozen others were run by Utah, Texas, Mississippi, Florida and Georgia, all averaging rates of 7.5% or more.
Some of the latest daily figures have also been baffling.
In Arizona, where doctors and public health administrators have called for the manufacture of mandatory face coatings in public, recorded a record 3,246 new infections in the past 24 hours, almost twice as many as those recorded on Wednesday. Its final day of positivity, starting Thursday, was 18.6%.
In Florida, one of the last states to impose stay-at-home restrictions and one of the first to start raising, reported 3,822 new cases, a daily record. His last positive figure was 10%, according to the state of health of the department.
“The situation in Florida and Arizona is really worrying,” William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, adding that the spike in the cases was not only due to more testing but indicative of a ” underlying epidemic of unknown size. ”
Although the growth in these confirmed cases partly reflects transmission among younger people less likely to be hospitalized, these people could infect the elderly and other vulnerable people with underlying medical conditions.
“The more of the transmission community there is, the greater the risk that it will infect someone who is vulnerable. There are a lot of seniors in Florida and Arizona, ”Hanage said.
Another area of concern was in Oklahoma, where the Trumpet campaign will be holding a rally on Saturday at 19,000 indoor arena in Tulsa, in its first such event since, these bans have been imposed in the whole country in March.
Public health experts have warned that the assembly of thousands of shouts, the chants of people inside the BOK Center and adjacent to a convention hall, risks creating a “super-spreader” demonstration for the highly contagious coronavirus.
Organizing the hand mask and hand sanitizer plan rally to all participants before entering the room, but they will not be required to maintain social distance or wear on face coverings . They must also sign a waiver form promising not to prosecute Trump or the campaign, if they have contracted the virus.
Trump supporters started lining up outside the arena well in advance. One of them, Randall Thom, 60, from Lakefield, Minnesota, said on Friday the United States needed to reopen.
“We cannot be afraid of this, the China virus or whatever you want to call it. I’m not afraid at all, ”he said. “And I’m very honored that President Trump wants to do a job for us as citizens, you know, to give us our rights to be normal.”