Only 2300 in the Uk are affected each day by the coronavirus, according to scientists behind an application that monitors the size of the epidemic across the United Kingdom.
The application COVID Symptom Tracker in the King’s College of London believes that the cases in the Uk have fallen by a third in the space of a week. In comparison, infections day-to-day were in excess of 11 000 last month.
The researchers, in collaboration with the society of health technology ZOE, have collected data on the symptoms and the results of the tests with one million of british citizens since the beginning of the crisis.
Last week, they have used these data to estimate that there were 3 612 people catching the virus every day in Great Britain- 35% more than the current figure of 2 341.
Most of the new cases – 1 978 – appear in England, said the team, as well as 241 per day in Wales, and 122 in Scotland. However, no estimates are made for Northern Ireland.
The data suggest that the virus is spread the most widely in the Midlands, who are familiar with 716 cases per day, over 330 people in the north-east and Yorkshire and 319 in the east of England.
The scientists who run the project have stated that the steady decline showed that the crisis was being resolved, but warned that people must be “prudent when they return to normal life”.
This comes after Boris Johnson has lifted this week, the blocking of the coronavirus, bringing the country out of hibernation – with a return to the pubs, hair cuts and weddings and friends and family getting the green light to meet in the interior for the first time in months.
The Prime minister said he wanted to “make life easier” after a period “incredibly difficult” with bars, restaurants, cinemas and hairdressers in England able to get it running from 4 July – dubbed ” Super Saturday “.
The application COVID Symptom Tracker from the King’s College London estimated that only 2 341 British are daily hit by the coronavirus. Last week, they have used these data to estimate that there were 3 612 people catching the virus every day in Great Britain and about 4 942 people the previous week. The figure was more than 11,000 per day a month ago
Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King’s, said: “The lock being eased in recent weeks, and other changes to come, it is interesting to see that now we see a tail in the decline.
“With Covid-19 still very present in the population, it is really important that the Uk continues to be careful when he comes back to a normal life.
“If we want to do this lifting of the lockdown a success, everyone needs to learn about Covid-19, as know the 19 symptoms associated with Covid-19.
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST DAILY COVID-19?
The data of the application COVID Symptom Tracker has estimated the total number of new cases of coronavirus every day in Great Britain 2341, 20 June.
It is as well that the case daily break down in his estimation:
- England: 1 978 new cases per day
- Wales: 241
- Scotland: 122
- Midlands: 716 new cases per day
- North-East and Yorkshire: 330
- East of England: 319
- North west: 290
- South East: 283
- London: 115
- South West: 54
“The first few days where cases are missed are particularly important when it is important to insulate yourself in case of discomfort and get tested quickly.
“The use of a technology such that our application will provide us with valuable data and will help us build a clearer picture of the amount of Covid-19 in the population at a given time, which will help us catch the seconds wave potential as soon as possible. “
The team that runs the mobile application “Covid-19 Symptom Tracker” collects for months of data on symptoms self-reported and the results of the tests.
The data of the update of this week have been learned, self-assessments, one million people on their own health and the results of a 14-422 tests on the swab carried out by the users of the application.
People are invited to connect regularly to report if they show signs of disease, or if they feel in good health.
We ask them to get tested if they have symptoms that could be related to Covid-19, and to communicate the results of the test.
For this reason, the application can not track reliably the number of people who catch the virus but do not develop symptoms, which can be thousands of others.
The estimate does not include Northern Ireland or the nursing homes, where the virus continues to spread, which means that the actual rate could be much higher.
The Office for National Statistics, the government department of statistics, collects data differently and uses regular tests to a representative sample of the population.
The experts of the NSO considered that the levels of infection in function of the way in which the proportion of this group testing positive changes over time.
Last week, the ONS suggested that there were between 3 800 new infections per day in England per day – which was in line with the estimates of the COVID Symptom Tracker last week.
The estimate was based on tests carried out on a representative sample of nearly 25,000 people across England, of which only 10 were positive.
But the downside of data from the ONS is that they do not include those diagnosed in hospitals or care homes. COVID Symptom Tracker doesn’t exclude them.
Dr. Paul Birrell, a researcher at the University of Cambridge, who has worked with Public Health England on different forecasts, said that none of the estimates is perfect.
He explains: “The tracker of the symptoms to detect only symptomatic infections. You would need to add the proportion of asymptomatic to this to get a number comparable to our estimate. Unfortunately, this proportion is not well known.
“The analysis of data on outbreaks of cruise ships suggests that this figure is approximately 50%, while the study of the NSO indicates that up to 70% are asymptomatic. “
Yesterday, the statistics of the ministry of Health revealed that only 653 British had received a diagnosis of a coronavirus, in the jump daily, the lowest since before the lockout is imposed on 23 march.
But these figures do not show the real extent of the epidemic, because many people who catch the virus are never infected because they do not realize they are sick, have not been able to pass a test or that the result was false.