Increased Restoration Spending Could Be Linked To COVID-19 Cases, Study Finds

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New research suggests there may be a correlation between the increase in COVID-19 cases and spending money in restaurants.

This is what J.P. Morgan discovered after examining data collected by John Hopkins University and studying how 30 million Chase credit and debit card holders have spent their money in the past few weeks.

“We find that the level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the most important predictor of the increase in new virus cases in the next three weeks,” wrote Jesse Edgerton, economic and political research analyst at JP Morgan. “Restaurant spending” card present “(that is, in person rather than online) is particularly predictive.”

ALSO: After registering a new increase in cases, SF suspends the next reopening phase

At the same time, Edgerton found that consumer spending in supermarkets had a lower rate of new COVID-19 cases and argued that “high levels of spending in supermarkets indicate more cautious social distancing in a State ”.

To make his point, Edgerton said in New York and New Jersey – states where new cases have declined – that supermarket spending has increased in the[threeweeksanda20%increasecomparedto2019ComparedtoArizonaandTexaswheretheCOVID-19casesincreasedconsumerslessinlastyear’sfigures[astthreeweeksandup20%comparedto2019ComparativelyinArizonaandTexaswhereCOVID-19caseshaverisenconsumershavespentlessatsupermarketscomparedtolastyear’snumbers[troissemainesetuneaugmentationde20%parrapportà2019ComparativementenArizonaetauTexasoùlescasdeCOVID-19ontaugmentélesconsommateursontdépensémoinsdanslessupermarchésparrapportauxchiffresdel’annéedernière[astthreeweeksandup20%comparedto2019ComparativelyinArizonaandTexaswhereCOVID-19caseshaverisenconsumershavespentlessatsupermarketscomparedtolastyear’snumbers

Edgerton wrote that while he recognizes that other factors may cause the spread of the new coronavirus, especially since the states of the United States share characteristics other than spending on restoration, he believes the data indicates a relationship between economic activity and the further spread of COVID-19.

Photo: Screenshot: J.P. Morgan

In this graph, J.P. Morgan illustrates the increase in California of COVID-19 cases per million since the reopening.

In this graph, J.P. Morgan illustrates California’s increase in …

According to a separate J.P. Morgan report updated on Friday, California has seen a steady increase in coronavirus cases since it reopened. CA.Gov said California had a total of 200,461 cases and a 2.5% increase on June 26.

ALSO: Three employees at this Berkeley restaurant tested positive for COVID-19. Here’s what they went through to reopen

On Wednesday, the United States recorded 34,700 new confirmed cases of COVID-19, the highest number since April, when the cases peaked at 36,400.

Susana Guerrero is an SFGATE digital journalist. Email: [email protected] | Twitter: @ SusyGuerrero3

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