Yet, the administration Trump continues to suggest a more positive outlook for the u.s. economy.
Larry Kudlow, the director of the national economic Council, said on Tuesday that it expected a recovery in the shape of a V, which means an economic recovery strong and steady in the wake of the recession. And the secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, said he could predict the end of the recession in the United States by the end of the year.
“I think you are going to attend a spectacular rebound at the bottom of the third quarter,” said Mr. Mnuchin during a virtual conference sponsored by Bloomberg Tuesday.
A pain prolonged economic could increase the pressure on the administration to Trump and the american legislators to move forward with another round of stimulus measures. The House democrats want a package to support the economy of $ 3 trillion, but the republicans are wary of more of the long-term impact of such spending on the deficit. Mr. Mnuchin said this week that future measures should be targeted more to help the industries most affected by the pandemic. The president Trump has suggested that he would be open to another series of checks of recovery, which could land on the bank accounts of the citizens just before the November elections.
The I. M. F. has warned that its forecasts were more uncertain than usual because the trajectory of the pandemic remains hard to predict. It commended the responses strong of the fiscal and monetary policy in the world to have helped contain the economic impact, but has warned that the growing debt could limit the additional support, as governments began to worry about the deficits balloon.
The report by I. M. F note that, even in countries where infection rates are coming down, the major obstacles to the resumption of normal activity persist. Travel and mobility are still depressed and the virus has dealt a blow to consumption and business investment.
“In most recessions, consumers use their savings or rely on the social safety nets and family support to smooth their expenditure, and the consumption is relatively less affected than the investment “, explained the I. M. F. told me. “But this time, the consumption and production of services have also dropped dramatically.”
The pandemic has also reduced the flow of world trade, that the fund was estimated to have declined by 3.5% in the first quarter compared to the previous year.