Data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) also reveals cases have increased as it is accelerated testing across the country. Total tests of the On June 18,th has 106,006 just 63,882 of May 2020, so about 40% of the total testing took place in the first 19 days of June. This comes to about 2,340 per day for the month of June so far. Most developed countries test more than 20 000 per day.
In terms of case-by-test, or daily of positivity of the test rate, Nigeria seems to be recording, 19.7%, or about 19.7 cases per 100 tested. This is based on an average of 462 cases per day in June and 2 340 cases per day, as indicated above.
The data is purely an estimate of the NCDC has not published any newspaper of positivity of the test for Nigeria. The official figures are recommended for an in-depth analysis of the decision-making.
The Positivity of the test rate the tracks the number of registered cases of all the tests carried out, and that came back positive for COVID-19. It is considered to be the the most reliable way to determine whether a government is a test enough.
A high rate of testing positive rate indicates that the government is only testing the most ill patients who sought medical attention, and is not throwing a wide net.
The WHO has published guidelines indicating that governments should see the positivity rates less than 5% for at least 14 days before relaxing social distancing measures. Nigeria positivity rate of 19.7% is far above the WHO recommended 5%.
According to the data of the Johns Hopkins University, Brazil has the highest rate of positivity of the test rate of 36.68%, followed by Mexico with 18.71%. Sweden is the next to 15.11%, followed by the united states and the united KINGDOM at 13.76% and 13.01%, respectively. India, which has a similar demographic like Nigeria, has a day of positivity of the test rate of 8.73%.
READ more: Lagos to open the churches, the mosques of 19 June, the boundaries of the gatherings at 40% of capacity
Pandemics are often a once-in-a-century type events, as well, projections can be risky. However, running the numbers to enable understanding of the task at hand and the urgency to flatten the curve.
A quick analysis by Nairametrics Research estimates that at the current rate of daily cases, Nigeria might record up to 240, 000 cases by the end of December 2020. According to our forecasts, Nigeria could save as much as 18 000 cases in June alone.
We used Microsoft Excel forecasting tool to estimate the number of cases might be assuming that the current levels are maintained. It is purely statistical and does not take into account the efforts of the flattening of the yield curve.
In our analysis, we have summary of all confirmed cases per month prior to the month of June, and then planned for the last days of June add, the confirmed cases recorded in June 2020. The total figures for each month were then used as the basis for the forecast in December 2020, with June as a starting point. The result is below;
As mentioned, this chart does not take into account other factors which could help to flatten the curve as the social distance, the locking extensions, and other preventive measures. There are also reports of a potential cure for the virus that could help you.
Some people also think that we may well be on the eve of a summit and that the numbers could start to come down sooner rather than later.
Nevertheless, this quick analysis shows that we could be facing in the coming months if efforts are not intensified to reduce the spread of the virus.
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Effect on Lockdown
The rise in cases, particularly, in Lagos, has led to several policy reversals relating to the easing of a lock. The Federal Government has initiated emergency plans to open the nearest airports, while Lagos State government has suspended indefinitely the planned re-opening of mosques and churches originally scheduled for Friday, 19 June and Sunday 21 June, respectively.
While the centres were already warming up to start their services, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, explained that the plan had to be suspended until the coast is clear. He said,
“We have been monitoring the situation closely and they have now concluded that we cannot proceed to any form of re-opening for places of worship in the State of Lagos until further notice.
“This is not a decision we’ve taken lightly, it is simply in line with our ongoing assessment of the evolution of the scenarios regarding the evolution of the infection in Lagos State and the public health advisory guidelines issued by the experts.’
“We are now, for the present, to suspend, with immediate effect, the plan to re-open the religious houses and places of worship in the State of Lagos until further order.’
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“We will continue to monitor the situation closely, and continue to base our decision on data modeling; as well as that we have a responsibility to act in a manner that ensures the protection of all you the people of Lagos State. So, until further order, all places of worship in the State of Lagos will remain closed.”
Also, on Thursday, the Presidential task force on COVID-19 stated that the June 21 date that has been determined for the local airlines to resume operations, is not feasible. According to the Chairman of the task force, the Boss Mustapha, the increasing number of cases are a concern and there are more reasons, the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has to cover before local flight recovery.