The price of Bitcoin (BTC) once again exceeded $ 10,000 in just a few hours before experiencing a brief 10% sale last week.
Whenever this happens, crypto Twitter brings out the fanfare, rejoicing that we have reached this psychological stage. It becomes almost too predictable, and that’s exactly why the possible escape will surprise everyone.
So are there any signals that can help us determine when this might happen? Let’s take a look at the charts of the largest market-based cryptocurrency, BTC.
Daily performance of the cryptography market. Source: Coin360.com
Fibonacci monthly goals
1 month BTC / USD chart. Source: TensorCharts
From the monthly view, little has changed since last week. Bitcoin still hovers around 0.382, placing the next target up at 0.5 Fib of $ 11,891. Each time Bitcoin reaches the $ 10,000 zone, we face a sale of around $ 10,500, which we must first overcome before it becomes a reality.
When you look at the historical action of monthly prices, we can see that last week was the third time that $ 10,500 was rejected. The question I ask myself now is whether this will happen for the fourth time.
Bitcoin order book
BTC / USD daily. Source: Tensorcharts.com
By taking a look at Binance’s order book, we can see the large sales orders indicated by the yellow bars. Previously, these were between $ 9,800 and $ 10,500. However, there are no longer any significant orders at $ 10,500.
This could be an early indication that the big sellers have a new goal in mind, and when it comes to higher lead times, $ 11,800 and $ 13,900 are the next logical options based on previous monthly resistance and Fibonacci levels. .
Weekly ascending chain
BTC / USD weekly chart Source: TradingView
Going down to the weekly, and we can see that the price is currently trending in an ascending channel, reflecting the monthly resistance of $ 10,500 as the channel midpoint, as well as the 382 Fib as the channel resistance.
On the downside, the loss of $ 9,000 would open up $ 7,600 as support based on the 236 Fib drawn of the month. On the upside, the $ 11,900 break would open the target of $ 618 to $ 13,900, which has been a key resistance level on the monthly chart for some time.
Bitcoin is not yet trending in the upper half of this relatively new channel, and with the support tested last week, we would now like to see the weekly candle close above $ 10,500 before being particularly bullish.
Until that happens, you have to stay neutral.
Bitcoin 4 hour chart
BTC / USD 4H chart. Source: TradingView
Going down to the 4 hour chart for Bitcoin, I look at the 236 and 100% Fib retracement for the support, which is $ 9,540 and $ 9,250, respectively.
However, the candles have displayed higher lows and lower highs in the past five days, which generally indicates the continuation of a trend, and at the moment, Bitcoin is still technically in an uptrend. . But losing 236, which we just tested while I was typing, would change the outlook for the week ahead.
Daily BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView
Finally, on the hourly chart, we have a downward price trend, with the MACD on the rise, which signals an upside divergence, which means that an upward break is expected.
As such, the upside scenario of the expansion to the first key resistance of $ 10,500 seems likely in the short term. Finally, getting out of this level would put $ 12,000 firmly at your fingertips before undergoing strong resistance to the ceiling at $ 13,900.
The first sign of a problem for Bitcoin would be losing $ 9,250, from there, $ 9,000 would be the last safe level of support before falling below $ 8,000, a scenario that I personally think is unlikely.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risks. You have to do your own research when you make a decision.