Countries “unlikely” to impose blockages complete if there is a second wave, according to analysts


People enjoy the beach in the midst of the pandemic of sars coronavirus in Huntington Beach, California, on June 14, 2020.APU GOMES | AFP | Getty Images

The country have very little chance to impose another lock-complete, even if there has been a resurgence of new cases of coronavirus in some parts of the world, said analysts at CNBC.It is unlikely that the situation is repeated in march, said on Thursday Suresh Tantia, a strategist senior investment office APAC CIO of Credit Suisse, to “Street Signs” CNBC. It is at this point that the pace of the virus began to escalate in the United States and in Europe, after the first appearance in China last December.

“This second wave of the virus is worrying the investors … but I think the main difference is that, unlike the last time in march, this time, it is very unlikely we will see a shutdown of the global economy,” he said.

“If you look at the liquidation of the march, the reason for which markets are sold was not because of virus problems, it was mainly because of the closure of the world economy,” said Tantia. “This is a concern for the markets, but as long as we will not see a repeat of march … I think the markets will consider this and focus more on recovery over the coming quarters. ”

The United States saw their number of cases the highest in a single day Wednesday, and said 45557 new cases at the end of the day, according to NBC News. California has recorded more than 7, 000 cases since Tuesday – an increase of 69% in two days; Florida has also reported a record number of new cases. The two States represent two of the largest economies in the United States.

To lock an entire country … costing you up to 3% of GDP per month, so even the richest nations of the planet can’t afford a complete lock down of two or three months.

Hartmut Issel

Head equity APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management

In Asia, South Korea, said that she was fighting against a “second wave” of coronavirus infections around the capital, Seoul, according to Reuters. In Beijing, the authorities have established certain restrictions upon the outbreak of a new cluster linked to a wholesale market in the city – the country has since stated that the situation was under control.

Hartmut Issel, head equity APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management, also said Tuesday on CNBC that it is “very unlikely” that the countries commit to new, in a total blockade.

“The locking of an entire country … costing you up to 3% of GDP per month, so even the richest nations of the planet can’t afford a complete lock down of two or three months “, he said.

The international monetary Fund has again reduced its economic forecast on Wednesday, warning that the public finances will deteriorate considerably as they attempt to cope with the impact of the pandemic.

She now believes to a contraction of 4.9% of the world’s gross domestic product in 2020, below the 3% fall it had predicted in April.

The IMF has explained that the revised estimates were due to measures of social distancing that would probably be in place during the second half of the year, the productivity and supply chains being affected.

In countries that are still struggling with high infection rates, the IMF expects the closures longer hinder still more economic activity.

– Noah Higgins-Dunn and Silvia Amaro of CNBC contributed to this report.


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