Coronavirus chaos in Georgia, Wisconsin, a “warning sign” for Democrats

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While postal voting can be more prone to fraud than in-person voting, electoral fraud is extremely rare and seldom tilts the results of major elections, according to election experts and reviews. Trump, who himself voted in the mail in Florida, also said he was very concerned about a Democratic bill in Congress concerning more postal voting and other electoral matters: “If you accept it , you would never have a Republican elected again in this country. ”

The POLITICO / Morning Consult poll shows that 33% of voters overall believe that Democrats would be helped primarily by allowing all voters to vote by mail. Only 6 percent thought it would benefit Republicans more, and 37 percent said it would help neither party more than the other.

Regarding party identification, 47 percent of Republicans thought email voting would help Democrats primarily, compared to 27 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of independents who think so, the poll showed.

The fears of the Republicans were also more pronounced than those of the Independents and Democrats when respondents were asked which statement they most agreed with: the United States should allow all voters to vote by mail because of the coronavirus; or shouldn’t that be allowed because it jeopardizes electoral security?

The poll showed that 34% of Republicans said they would favor a wider postal vote, while 58% said they were more concerned about security. But 81% of Democrats and 56% of independents were in favor of expanding postal voting, while 10% of Democrats and 28% of independents were more concerned with security. Overall, voters prefer postal voting in this scenario from 58% to 31%.

Voting by mail, however, may seem easier than it is. New voters tend to be fooled by certain signature and verification requirements which may vary from state to state.

“The first time you do something, you’re going to make mistakes,” said political scientist Christopher Mann of Skidmore College, who studies postal voting.

In Florida, which requires that the signatures on the mail-in envelopes match the voter’s signature on the record with the county election supervisor, new voters have their ballots rejected at higher rates than experienced voters , who tend to be older, white and Republican, according to research by Dan Smith of the University of Florida.

Democrats from Florida to Pennsylvania have taken heart in the increase in voter registration and the demand for postal votes compared to Republicans, but Democrats often have lower return rates than Republicans.

“Converting these requests into real votes is where the real work begins, and it’s much harder to do than it sounds,” said Ryan Tyson, Republican consultant from Florida.

Florida and national Democratic parties say they have invested more money in voter education and education, which includes specialized courses to help people follow the proper application and voting process for a postal ballot.

Yet the Democrats lost a special congressional election in California that was overwhelmingly all-mail. The Democrats had a registration advantage over the Republicans of 6.6 percentage points in the 25th Congressional District of California, but the GOP returned more ballots.

“Joe Biden’s supporters are barely intense enough to tweet about him,” said representative Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). “The President’s supporters would gargle coronavirus-flavored ginger ale while waiting to vote for him.”

However, Trump follows Biden in almost all national polls and on most battlefields, including Florida.

As Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary approached, the Conservatives sang that the Democrats were underperforming for Biden because more people were voting for Trump in the undisputed Republican primary compared to the Democratic contest. But Biden got 10% more votes than Trump. Democrats also point out that participation has been huge in Georgia. And during the April 7 primary in Wisconsin, the Democrats came out in force and won a contested seat in the state’s Supreme Court.

The Democrats’ victory in Wisconsin came despite major problems for black voters in Milwaukee, where all but 180 of 180 wards closed due to coronavirus. In very black ridings, the total number of ballots cast between the February Supreme Court primary and the April 7 race increased by less than 40%, while the total number of ballots in the state increased 119%, according to analysis by Democratic consultant Matt Isbell.

A return of the coronavirus and the suppression of voters who may occur with black and urban voters could topple the general election in Wisconsin, said Isbell. That’s right, he said, in other battlefield states like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Florida, which Trump also narrowly transported in 2016.

“What we have seen happening in Wisconsin, in Philadelphia, Georgia is a warning sign,” said Isbell. “We need to get every Democrat a mail-in ballot and make sure they throw it the right way. “

Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company, providing insight into what people think in real time by interviewing tens of thousands of people around the world every day..
More details on the survey and its methodology can be found in these two documents: Toplines | Cross tables

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