(Kitco News) –
The construction on the Friday of the momentum, gold prices are starting the week on a good note and pushing it to within striking distance of critical resistance at $1,800 an ounce.
August gold futures closing at $1,771.70 an ounce, up 1% on the day. According to market analysts, gold is getting a boost Sunday night, as investors begin to question the health of the global economic recovery as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread in an uncontrolled manner, in particular in the UNITED states
“While the social distance during the months of March and April helped slow the spread, of the reopening of activities in a number of states, including Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida and Texas have coincided with a wave of infections that may spread further south and west compared to the beginning of the affected states. In this sense, the recent increase in the number of cases represents a ” rolling “, as opposed to a second wave of COVID-19 in the UNITED states, ” said economists from Nomura in a report on Friday by the end of.
However, although the bullish sentiment is strong in the gold market, some analysts warn that the precious metal may not have enough steam to break through its month-long trading range.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist with Bannockburn Global Forex, warned that the momentum indicators show that investors must be cautious at the current level. He noted that, in the Financial Crisis of 2008, gold did not break out to new highs until the fourth quarter of 2009.
“Recall in mid-May, gold has pushed to $1765 and reversed lower. The MACD is neutral, and the Slow Stochastic looks poised to turn lower. That said, many are in search of a passage to $1800, ” he said in a research note on Sunday.
Chris Weston, director of research at Pepperstone, has also pointed to a neutral sentiment and positioning in the gold market; however, he added that the precious metal is back from the investor radar after prices pushed back above $1,750 per ounce.
Daniel Dubrovsky, an analyst at the DailyFX.com said that although gold is testing the top of its range, it needs a new catalyst to escape. He added that the fall in equity markets could spark a new bullish trend for the precious metal.
A major risk of the event, he said that he looks at this week is the International Monetary Fund, the forecast update for Wednesday.
“The International Monetary Fund will update to 2020, the future growth prospects and those who can paint in a still-gloomy picture,” Dubrovsky said in a report on Saturday. “In the absence of a shock that plunges actions, it seems that the gold price could continue to fight in the indecision of the trade. “
Currency analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman said that there are expectations for the IMF to lower their forecasts of growth to be more in line with the latest forecasts from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, which sees the world economy contracting by around 6% this year.
Gold’s technical picture is not her only headwind, such as tests of resistance in the long term below $1 800 an ounce. The analysts note that the precious metal is entering its seasonally slower period.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Jeff Clark, senior precious metals analyst Goldsilver.com said that although he is bullish on gold in the long term, he would not be surprised to see a price drop in July and August.
He added that any decline in gold should be seen as a buying opportunity.
“September is usually the best month of the year for the two metals,” he said. “So, I would really like my show before. “
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