Which Premier League clubs benefit from in camera matches? | Football News


Project Restart could end the season behind closed doors – but which teams would it affect the most?

Premier League clubs remain committed to ending the 2019/20 season, but this will only be possible if 8-10 neutral sites are used to play the remaining matches.

But which clubs would win or lose if the league resumes in empty stadiums?

Home advantage

A Sky Sports study found that Premier League teams were 14.6% more likely to win if they played at home this season, compared to road results.

The main reason for this advantage is almost certainly the influence of home fans, in addition to less travel and a more familiar environment.

But what happens when you divide that number into points per game for each club?

Welcome kings

Norwich, the lowest, amassed nearly three-quarters of his home points – averaging more than one point per game at Carrow Road, but only 0.4 on the road.

Aston Villa still has a realistic chance of avoiding the fall, but relies heavily on its original form, as well as its relegation comrades Bournemouth, Watford and Brighton – as did the Spurs in their quest for European qualification.

Conversely, Southampton, Chelsea and Wolves are the only clubs to perform better away from home, while Sheffield United received only a marginal boost at Bramall Lane in their sensational campaign.

How many home games?

Teams with more home games would lose a “twelfth man” boost, and teams with more away games would win.

Aston Villa and Manchester City each have six home games leading the league. The data above suggests that home form has a marginal effect on City – but that could further erode their slim four-point lead over Leicester.

However, this could be a deciding factor for Villa, for whom the margins are even thinner in the battle for top-flight survival – losing home support against Sheffield United, Chelsea, Wolves, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.

At the other end of the table, Sheffield United and Arsenal would be the biggest benefactors with six remaining road trips – further increasing their challenges for European qualification.

The Blades would sidestep opposition supporters at Newcastle, Manchester United, Burnley, Leicester, Southampton and Villa, but would lose support for the deciding home games against Tottenham and Wolves.

However, Chris Wilder’s team is one of a handful of clubs that, regardless of location, have reached a similar level of fitness.

Arsenal suffered on days of absence and would benefit from an absent crowd against Manchester City, Brighton, Southampton, Wolves, Villa and rivals Spurs – but would also be fanless for the home game with Liverpool.

The elected champions have five away games to play, including Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal.

Chelsea could lose an advantage in crucial games against Manchester City and the Wolves at Stamford Bridge, while the Spurs still have home games against Manchester United and Arsenal.

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Who has the most difficult break-in?

Crystal Palace and Bournemouth have the toughest clashes, with the remaining opponents averaging 8.2 in the standings – bad news for Eddie Howe’s team, which currently sits in 18th position. Aston Villa, Brighton and Sheffield United also have tough schedules.

In terms of tough home games, the Seagulls have the hardest point with Manchester City’s two clubs, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle, who are expected to visit Amex – which would be compounded if they lost their home support during these matches.

Manchester United has the list of easiest matches with their average opponent with a ranking of 12.3 in the table – having only three opponents from the top half left to play. Local rivals Manchester City, Wolves, Southampton and Newcastle also have easier break-ins.

All remaining devices

Games in camera so far

There have been 11 games played behind closed doors due to the coronavirus outbreak in Serie A, Liga and A-League, which are comparable to the most recent result between the same teams in the same stadium.

Interestingly, home teams are doing slightly better without their home crowd, winning 1.55 points per game versus 1.45 on average.

These results contradict the statistical fact that the home advantage exists – assuming that a home crowd is the influencing factor – but this is likely due to the small sample size and the time between matches.

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