The Scientific Emergency Advisory Group (SAGE) said the number of UK spawners for coronavirus is now between 0.7 and 1, dropping from 0.5 to 0.9 last week.
If the number of reproduction (R) is more than one, the infection rate will increase across the UK.
If it is less than one, the epidemic will decrease.
The research was conducted by six research groups and suggested that cases in nursing homes and hospitals accounted for a higher proportion of cases than last week.
It occurs as large variations in the “R” rate between regions appear, with a rate as low as 0.4 in London, but as high as 0.8 in other regions.
And the planned reopening of schools in early June, which concerns the unions, depends on controlling the rate “R”.
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While the increase in movement of people that has been legalized this week may have resulted in more infections, it is too early for a change to appear in the data.
R is estimated from hospitalization data, demand for intensive care, deaths and number of social contacts.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific advisor said: “R is one of the important things you can follow to understand an epidemic. If you can estimate R, then you have a reliable tool for planning the fight against the virus.
“If the R is greater than one, it means that this disease is growing exponentially and will continue to spread to more and more people. To keep R below one and control the virus, it is essential that people remain vigilant and continue to follow the latest government guidelines to the letter.
“In the coming weeks, we will update this estimate regularly. “
Asked about the increase in R at the Downing Street briefing tonight, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the important thing is that he stays below one.
He said, “We are constantly keeping the R under review. We do not think it is greater than one. So this meets this criterion.
“This is an incredibly important figure for policymakers, but it is a data point to examine in parallel at the level of new cases. “
SAGE is currently working on the calculation of regional R numbers.
Transmission rates are now believed to be lower in London than it is in the North East and Scotland.
Yesterday, a modeling study by Public Health England and the Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit revealed that the R in London was only 0.4, compared to 0.8 in North East and Yorkshire.
In the northwest, it was 0.73, according to the study, 0.76 in the southwest, 0.68 in the Midlands and 0.71 in the southeast and south.
The study released today questions these numbers and suggests that they are actually higher, however.
He intervenes in the midst of a major conflict between the government and the unions who say that June 1 is too early to reopen primary schools.
The Ministry of Education document said, “The changes proposed from May 11 should keep R below 1 if adherence to social distancing measures does not decrease.
“Any change in membership rates or changes in behavior could have a much bigger impact on R.
“This is why it is essential that we continue to monitor and review scientific advice on transmission rates before asking educational and child care institutions to invite more children to come back on June 1st. “